Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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659 FXUS62 KJAX 231705 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 105 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1019 millibars) centered near Bermuda and extending its axis southwestward across our region. Meanwhile, weak surface troughing extends to the south of this surface ridge across the southeastern Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Aloft...ridging centered over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico) was extending its axis northeastward across our region, with cutoff troughing located to the east of this ridge axis over the Bahamas and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, troughing was digging southeastward from the northern Rockies towards the High Plains states, creating brisk zonal flow downstream of this feature across the Southern Plains, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Shortwave troughs embedded within this fast zonal flow pattern were creating convection over the Ozarks, Tennessee Valley and the Texas Hill Country, with high altitude debris cloudiness emanating from these convective bursts progressing eastward across the Deep South, with thinning cirrus moving overhead of our inland counties late this morning. Plenty of sunshine and a relatively dry and subsident air mass were allowing temperatures to climb to the 80-85 degree range at most locations as of 15Z, with dewpoints generally in the 65-70 range. Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our region, with a shortwave trough expected to traverse the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians on Friday. Cirrus cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue to thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our area, with a relatively weak surface pressure pattern allowing for the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop early this afternoon, progressing inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75 corridor towards sunset today. There may be just enough low level moisture in place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along the I-75 corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and subsident air mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate any chances for thunderstorms later today and this evening. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine will boost highs to the lower 90s inland, with breezy onshore winds in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary keeping coastal highs generally in the mid 80 today. Dewpoints falling through the 60s this afternoon will keep maximum heat index values below 100 degrees today. The subsident air mass in place may foster some patchy fog formation during the predawn hours along the I-75 corridor and portions of inland southeast GA. Otherwise, thin cirrus will continue to periodically progress overhead. Inland lows will fall to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations. The shortwave trough progressing across the southeastern states on Friday could provide a little more support for isolated afternoon convection to develop near a collision of the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA, northeast and north central FL, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The overall subsident nature of our local air mass should keep convective activity brief in duration and below strong or severe limits. Seasonably hot weather will continue, with highs ticking up to the low and middle 90s inland and the upper 80s at coastal locations. Dewpoints will again fall into the 60s at inland locations on Friday afternoon, resulting in maximum heat index values of around 100 degrees at most locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A brief period of restrictions in light fog will be possible toward dawn Friday at KVQQ, otherwise Prevailing VFR conditions forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 92 70 94 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 72 87 73 89 / 0 10 10 20 JAX 67 94 70 95 / 0 20 10 20 SGJ 70 88 71 92 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 67 94 68 94 / 0 10 0 20 OCF 66 94 68 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$