Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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209 FXUS62 KJAX 220551 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 151 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track through tonight and into Wednesday morning with patchy to locally dense areas of fog developing in the early morning hours on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon/evening...Forecast remains on track with near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze development an inland push through the afternoon hours will kick off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. PWATs already around 1 inch or so and expected to increase closer to 1.5 inches as the sea breeze and mid level impulse push onshore through the day. Max temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the 80s for most locations. Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the coast in the 15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds expected further inland. Tonight...Rainfall chances will fade quickly around sunset with the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear overnight and lows expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along the coast. Patchy to areas of fog expected towards sunrise with locally dense fog possible over inland areas, mainly along the I-10 corridor northward across inland SE GA. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure along the east coast continues the onshore wind flow, allowing the sea-breeze to make its way in just east of the 301 corridor. An upper level ridge moves in from the west, bringing drier conditions to the region. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s with temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the coast. overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s along the coast with chances of patchy fog for SE GA. Thursday, another dry day with winds beginning to shift to the southeast in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon as central high surface pressure slowly makes its way off the Atlantic coast. The sea-breeze will again make its way inland with windier conditions of 8-9mph sticking closer to the coast. Daytime temperatures will be in the low 90s area wide with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Thursday night, mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Upper level ridging sticks around for the forecast period with surface ridging slowly weakens into the beginning of next week. Local troughing caused by the sea-breeze could bring some afternoon and evening showers with isolated thunderstorms into the weekend. Temperatures will stick around the low to mid 90s with overnight temperatures in the low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The 06Z TAF period will begin with MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog inland with VFR conditions along the coast. Very light east northeast flow from a low to the east and high pressure near the Outer Banks of NC is bring few low clouds onshore 1.0 to 2.0 kft that will transition to low stratus further inland through sunrise with MVFR fog and IFR ceilings that may lower to IFR/LIFR fog and ceilings at times, so have marked tempo groups at GNV and VQQ for IFR/LIFR restrictions with IFR ceiling potentially at JAX from 08-11Z and MVFR ceiling potentially at times at SSI for low end MVFR ceilings. After sunrise, easterly winds will increase to 7-10 knots through midday as high pressure ridge sinks to just north of the area today with the Atlantic seabreeze moving inland to CRG/JAX/VQQ by 17/18/19Z. Not expecting coverage of any brief showers to warrant VCSH as of this TAF forecast, but may adjust in the upcoming forecast. Low stratus inland will lift to MVFR 12-14Z and then become VFR after 15/16Z with high cirrus above moving in from the northwest, then cloud cover dissolving from the coast westward to inland areas through this afternoon. Easterly winds 10-12 knots will subside after sunset to 4-6 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday. .Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 83 71 86 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 85 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 91 68 93 68 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$