Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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689 FXUS62 KJAX 201647 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1247 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20 knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise, otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to introduce with this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 78 69 79 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 81 64 83 67 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 81 67 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 84 62 87 64 / 40 0 40 0 OCF 87 63 89 67 / 30 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$