568
FXUS62 KJAX 200721
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
321 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from
near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with
low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak
low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a
cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only
a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to
upper 60s at the coast.

A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern
third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic
and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will
elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High
pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low
offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink
across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting
south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into
interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon
with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not
expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier,
cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s
along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low
stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy
this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from
north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting
to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight,
lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to
around 70 at the beachfront.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding
inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging
builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across
forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures
will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday,
warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s
east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area
through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid
90s well inland, a little above normal.

A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas
Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms
across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By
Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the
afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal
temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s
immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible
in a few areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI
to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the
next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds
to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South
Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more
northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as
the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings
and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z
with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast
while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z.

Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with
higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where
greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across
area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage
at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland
Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into
Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will
then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of
the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze
develops each afternoon.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on
Tuesday for all area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  63  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  81  70  80  70 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  82  65  83  67 /  20  10  20   0
SGJ  82  69  82  70 /  30  10  30   0
GNV  85  63  86  64 /  30   0  40   0
OCF  86  64  87  67 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$