Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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443 FXUS62 KJAX 011730 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf East to Southeast steering flow still on track to push Atlantic sea breeze well inland and still possible isolated showers and/or storms to develop as it reaches the Gulf Coast sea breeze or outflows from ongoing storm activity over SW GA. Not expecting much convection as abundant dry air mixing in with any activity will keep rainfall chances around 20% or so. The delayed start to any convection will allow for slight chance PoPs continue this evening into the overnight hours. Cloud cover will remain partly to mostly cloudy tonight as leftover convective debris clouds from convection west of the region will continue with lows in the 65-70 range inland and 70-75 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The airmass will likely remain too dry and mixed through the overnight hours for any fog formation. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Moisture will begin returning to the region on Sunday, with PWATS generally rising above 1.5 inches area-wide. Both Sunday and Monday, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected, with the highest coverage of storms being in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Diurnal instability and increased moisture will promote thunderstorms, however with weak mid-level lapse rates forecast, only isolated to widely scattered storm coverage is likely both days. Highs Sunday will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, with a slight warm up forecast for Monday. Mild low temperatures forecast, in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Temperatures will remain hot this week as high pressure builds overhead, with a gradual slight increase in temps each day through Friday. By Thursday, with steering flow will shift southwesterly, so even the immediate east coast will see high temperatures in the lower 90s. The general daily trend will be an afternoon/evening isolated to scattered thunderstorm risk as the sea breezes move inland and soaring temperatures create enough surface based instability. Although far out in the forecast, it appears a front will approach from the northwest late this week, timing and impacts still have a decent level of uncertainty. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Not much changes ongoing with the current TAF suite as VFR conds will continue through the period as airmass still too dry to support any convection near the TAF sites and just expect a mix of FEW-SCT diurnal Cu field this afternoon around 4000-5000 ft with SCT-BKN high clouds aloft at 15-25Kft. East-Southeast winds this afternoon at 10-13 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots at times that will fade to light SE-S south winds after sunset this evening. Airmass still too dry to support any late night fog and any low rainfall chances will likely not occur until after 18Z on Sunday at any of the local NE FL/SE GA TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will build off of the Carolinas this afternoon into Sunday with winds turning more southeasterly. The high will shift near Bermuda early next week with lighter southeasterly winds turning southerly midweek with isolated thunderstorms returning to the waters in the afternoon and early evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday with winds turning southwesterly. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk on Sunday for NE FL and SE GA beaches as onshore winds begin to calm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will fall below flood stage by this afternoon to evening. Water levels have already begun to recede along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along lower portions of the Suwannee River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 85 67 89 / 10 50 20 30 SSI 74 84 73 85 / 10 20 20 20 JAX 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 20 30 SGJ 71 86 72 87 / 10 30 20 20 GNV 67 89 67 91 / 10 50 10 40 OCF 67 90 68 92 / 10 50 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$