Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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217 FXUS62 KJAX 021657 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1257 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No significant changes to the thinking for this short term update. Broken mid-upper level cloudiness is overspreading much of the forecast area with some light sprinkles over the Suwannee River Valley and SE Georgia. The Gulf sea breeze should penetrate inland to be to close to I-75 this evening. Widely scattered convection should develop along it this afternoon/evening. With a strong ESE to SE synoptic flow from off the ocean a few areas may see ocean showers impinge on the beaches/ICWW, but anything that does so should be very brief in any one location. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will be off the coast of the Carolinas, shifting towards Bermuda. This will lead to southeasterly steering flow today, allowing for the Atlantic sea breeze to move well inland. Moisture moving in from the west will bring PWAT values to sit above 1.5 inches across the area. Showers and storms are likely to begin along the I-75 corridor as the Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea breeze meet. With the increase in moisture to the area, combined with diurnal instability, the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across the area can be expected from the afternoon to early evening. Daytime temperatures will primarily be in the upper 80s, with warmer temperatures expected along the north central FL counties. Overnight, temperature lows will dip to the upper 60s for inland areas with coastal locations dipping to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Light, stagnant flow pattern will establish itself across the local area early this week as broad low level ridging builds across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and then shifts over Florida Tuesday. Moisture seeping back into the area will recharge diurnal instability and aid in scattered showers and isolated storms along the sea breezes. T`storms development will be more likely during the late afternoon and early evening hours as sea breezes converge generally west of I-95. Primary concerns will be locally heavy downpours, occasional lightning and possibly localized gusty outflows but severe t`storms are unlikely. Temperatures will build through the week with highs trending into the low 90s inland by Tuesday and upper 80s to near 90 at the coast. Overnight temperatures will still be fairly comfortable, especially inland with readings in the upper 60s. Warming coastal waters will keep coastal zones a few degrees warmer in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Deepening moisture will continue through the end of the week with more than half of the buffet of ensemble members signaling PWATs surging above the 75th percentile (~1.7"). This deeper moisture will arrive Thursday and occur as the steering flow shifts southwesterly and strengthens ahead of an approaching frontal feature. This moisture and realignment in the steering will bolster instability through the end of the week and into the weekend and ultimately enhance diurnal t`storm chances across the region. Given the transition period, guidance is still struggling with the progressiveness of the aforementioned front. Run-to-run inconsistency has limited confidence in whether a frontal passage will occur. If the front stalls to the north, the hot and unstable airmass will stay in place, keeping storm chances through the weekend. In addition to the increasing t`storm potential, temperatures and heat risk will build through the week as ambient highs push well above normal with peak heat index values possibly in the 100-105 range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A band of light showers/rain is moving east across the Suwannee Valley and SE Georgia. This band may make it into KGNV and KVQQ but with the strong ESE low level flow and sea breeze coming off the Atlantic I doubt it makes it much further east than U.S. 301. A few convergent bands evident over the coastal waters on visible satellite imagery but not seeing them show up on radar yet. So we still might see a few showers impinge on the coast with that low level flow but any that do will be widely scattered. Bottom line, will keep VCSH at all fields but the chances of any one field being impacted long enough to justify a TEMPO group is minimal. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will shift eastward towards Bermuda into next week as southeasterly flow continues. Isolated storm chances will return over the local waters this afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will become more southerly by midweek and then southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front by the end of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues through Monday for all area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The stagnant flow pattern associated with a ridge of high pressure will allow winds to be dictated entirely by the sea and gulf breeze through Wednesday. Moisture and afternoon humidities will trend higher through the week. The uptick in moisture and instability will increase thunderstorm coverage, particularly Thursday and Friday. Lacking transport flow will limit dispersion through the first half of the week before winds increase from the southwest on Thursday and Friday. By next weekend, a cool front may attempt to push into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Water levels are steadily receding along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along lower portions of the Suwannee River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 68 90 69 / 40 20 40 10 SSI 85 73 86 74 / 20 20 30 10 JAX 87 69 90 69 / 20 20 30 10 SGJ 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 30 10 GNV 89 67 91 67 / 30 20 40 10 OCF 90 68 92 68 / 30 20 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$