695
FXUS62 KJAX 192315
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
715 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL
extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee
Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push
southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind near
the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated convection
remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The cool front
is expected to push through most of the forecast region during the
overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to widely
scattered over the land areas the remaining daylight hours,
become isolated during the mid to late evening. A northeasterly
flow will become established during the overnight hours as the
cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down
from the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha
River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will
begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once
the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon.
Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000
J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early
evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the
overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible
during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A
northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight
hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins
to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering
near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand
with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the
forecast convective chances over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper
level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to
make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along
with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the
morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor,
increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10%
after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in
the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland.
Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in
the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be
similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of
20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an
upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear
skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday
afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over
the weekend in the afternoon and evening igh pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper
level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to
make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along
with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the
morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor,
increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10%
after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.hours as PWAT values
increase to 1.5"+ and an upper level trough moves into the area.
Temperatures will slowly climb into the 90s by Thursday and stay
through the weekend with overnight temperatures will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR clouds around at this time with scattered to broken cumulus
around 3500-4500 ft. First signs of convection so far over inland
southeast GA, but deepening cumulus field will result in chance
of showers and storms rest of the aftn with TEMPO groups in place,
with lowest confidence for SGJ and GNV at this time. Could be strong
gusty winds that accompany storms around SSI and then near JAX by
22z and 00z, respectively. Showers and storms expected to diminish
in coverage and intensity after 02z-04z time frame as frontal boundary
sags southward. Low clouds will begin to develop overnight into
Monday morning that may be close to IFR but mainly MVFR. Sfc winds
prevail from the west about 8-12 kt and will shift to northerly
and northeast by Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over
the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the
evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and
heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast
overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be
near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters
Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters
during the middle part of next week.

Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day
for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  65  84  63 /  80  10  10   0
SSI  86  69  80  70 /  60  20  10   0
JAX  89  67  81  66 /  30  20  30   0
SGJ  89  68  81  69 /  40  30  30  10
GNV  87  67  83  62 /  20  10  50   0
OCF  87  68  86  65 /  20  10  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$