702
FXUS62 KJAX 301719
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
119 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes gradually shifts
southeastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. A dry airmass (PWATs
0.8-1.2 in.) remains over the area today leading to another warm
and dry day. Some shortwaves aloft pass across the region today,
however, due to the prevailing dry airmass, it will only bring an
increase in cloud cover. High temperatures will reach the upper
80s across SE GA to mid 90s in north-central FL, however with
lower dewpoints, heat indices will max out in the lower to mid
90s. Flow becomes north-northeasterly today allowing for the
Atlantic sea breeze to shift inland to the St. Johns river basin
late this afternoon into evening. This will keep temperatures
along the coast in the upper 80s to around 90. "Cool" low
temperatures continue this morning and Friday morning with lows in
the low 60s to upper 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday, sfc high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley Friday
morning will move southeast while a weak shortwave trough pushes
east off the local coast. Low level winds will be northeasterly and
become more easterly as the high moves southeast. A low chance of
a shower or storm possible over inland northeast FL in the aftn
where best low level convergence will be from the east coast sea
breeze and the west coast sea breeze. Otherwise dry conditions
continue to prevail. Breezy northeast-east winds anticipated due
to the moderate pres gradient in place. Should also see more
cumulus with the onshore flow. Highs forecast from mid 80s
along the coast, to lower 90s well inland. Onshore flow and partly
cloudy into Friday night with low rain chances about 10 percent
or less. Lows will again be below normal in the mid 60s, with
a few lower 60s possible well inland and then about 70-72
at the coast from the northeast wind.

Saturday, sfc high pressure center moves further east over the
western Atlantic. Even drier and subsident pattern in place for
nearly all locations so rain chances are 10 percent or less on
easterly flow up to 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph possibly.
Should see some mid to high clouds increase from the west ahead of
a shortwave trough moving through the Srn and Mid MS Valley.
Appears best chances of rain associated with this feature will
remain to the the west. Given the flow, max temps again cooler
toward the coast in the mid 80s while near the I-75 corridor will
see highs of about 90 deg. Sat night, continuation of scattered to
broken mid to high clouds due to the upstream feature but
continuing nil POPs. Lows again mainly mid 60s to near 70 given
more clouds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Sfc high pressure ridge will be across the northern FL and
southern GA Sunday and gradually sink southward this period. PWATS
start out fairly low below 1.5 inches but may start inching up as
the ridge shifts southward and some moisture begins to increase
on more southwest or westerly deep layer flow. We showed some slight
rain chances at about 15-20 percent each day mainly due to sea
breeze activity each aftn/evening, and guidance generally
shows most areas stay dry. Temperatures will slowly heat
back up during this period likely near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024


VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
northerly winds around 5-10mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

North winds briefly increase this morning but remain below caution
levels as a frontal boundary shifts south of the area. High
pressure builds north of the waters today then begins to shift
northeast of the area into Friday. Onshore easterly winds increase
into the weekend as high pressure builds offshore of the mid-
Atlantic coast.

Rip Currents: Developing onshore flow will result in a moderate
risk of rip currents for area beaches through at least Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Fire-sensitive day again with Min RH values bottoming out around
25-30 percent today and 30-35 percent on Friday. Winds are
minimal where we have lowest RH values so no red flags needed.
Headlined in the Fire Wx Forecast is the high daytime dispersion
values today. Dispersion values are generally lower on Friday owing
to weaker transport wind. A gradual increase in low level moisture
anticipated Friday through early next week and a low chance of a
shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  84  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  88  68  87 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  70  87  72  86 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  66  93  66  90 /  10  30   0  10
OCF  67  94  67  91 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$