Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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954
FNUS72 KJAX 231300
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for Pumpkin Hill Creek 1Sn...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
900 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather will continue at the burn site through at least
the late afternoon hours on Friday. An isolated, brief shower
could develop around sunset on Friday evening. Otherwise, light
southerly surface and transport winds around ignition time
will shift to southeasterly late this morning and then easterly
this afternoon following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze,
with surface speeds increasing to around 15 mph and gusty during
the mid to late afternoon hours. Generally fair daytime dispersion
values are expected this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon
at the burn site. Breezy southeasterly surface and transport winds
will continue into the evening hours tonight before shifting to
southerly while gradually weakening overnight. Light
south-southwesterly surface and transport winds are expected
after sunrise on Friday, with surface winds then shifting to
southeasterly during the mid afternoon hours following the passage
of the Atlantic sea breeze. Surface speeds will increase to around
15 mph during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Friday.


.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14  16  17  30  44  58  57  57  56
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............79  82  84  86  86  87  86  86  84
RH..............74  65  55  55  55  50  50  50  55
Heat index (F)..77  85  88  89  91  92  92  91  89
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   9   10  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.7   9   10  14  16  17  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   7   8   10  10  12  12
Dispersion idx..15  20  25  30  35  35  35  35  35
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  37  27  24  22  19  21  23  25  30  35  40
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............82  80  78  77  75  74  73  73  72  71  70  70
RH..............60  65  71  74  82  84  87  87  90  90  93  93
Heat index (F)..87  83  78  76  76  75  74  73  73  72  72  72
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  10  9   7   6   6   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.20  20  17  16  14  10  9   9   7   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  13  12  10  10  9   9   9   9
Dispersion idx..30  25  10  10  8   7   6   6   5   5   5   5
LVORI...........2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6

.FRIDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  36  34  31  28  25  27  29  31  35  39  43
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  70  72  77  81  84  86  88  90  88  87  86
RH..............97  93  85  70  60  55  50  50  45  50  50  50
Heat index (F)..71  71  73  77  85  90  94  96  96  97  98  96
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   6   7   8   9   12  12  13
20 FT wind gust.3   3   3   6   7   9   10  13  14  17  17  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.1 4.0 3.3 2.6 1.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   7   6   6   6   7   8   9   12  13
Dispersion idx..5   5   10  15  20  25  25  30  35  35  35  35
LVORI...........7   7   4   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...Allison Conboy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414987.0/JAX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Allison.Conboy@FloridaDEP.gov