305
FXUS63 KJKL 030753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
353 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will develop into early Monday morning likely
  becoming locally dense in the valleys.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Updated the forecast to mainly fine tune the PoPs for the next
couple of hours concerning the area of showers and perhaps an
embedded thunderstorm moving through the southern portion of the
CWA. This will likely be followed by areas of fog developing as
the clouds clear - becoming locally dense in the valleys. Did also
add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure starting to push into
the Ohio Valley as a short wave passes aloft. This is responsible
for a fleeting threat of showers and thunderstorms for another
couple of hours. Then, gradual clearing sets in along with the
development of fog - becoming locally dense in the valleys after
midnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints remain elevated
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to
fine tune the PoPs and thunder through the night per the radar and
CAMs` trends. Did also beef up the fog into Monday morning with
this update as well as adding in the current obs and tendencies
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent along
with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of
daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper-
level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will
result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some
of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley
locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level
disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce
isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few
afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing
storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With
sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at
most locations.

Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and
Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow
ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any
precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period
ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread
fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most
valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

An amplified and blocky long wave pattern will be in place through
the period. Model agreement has improved somewhat late in the
week compared to yesterday. Deeper short wave energy will take on
a negative tilt as it moves from the central/northern Plains to
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley region by
early Wednesday morning. A surface cold front will progress
southeast, aligning from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley back through the Midwest and into the southern Plains by
early Wednesday morning. Deeper moisture and lift will move
through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys later Wednesday
afternoon/evening, associated with a passing short wave trough, as
well as the nearing surface cold front. Consequently, widespread
convection will break out across eastern Kentucky, with good model
agreement maintaining that this will likely be our most active
period.

As the parent upper level low gradually spreads southeast from
south central Canada into the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio
Valley through the end of the work week, cooler and drier air
will eventually overspread our region. While PoPs will not be
eliminated from the forecast, given the cyclonic flow in place,
they will lessen through Friday, with only a 20% chance forecast
by that time. PoPs will then increase to the chance range (20-40%)
through the end of the week, as the upper level low continues to
gyre around the eastern Great Lakes and portions of New England.
This will allow for another progressive surface cold front to move
through the Ohio Valley. Details on the timing are low confidence
at this time, so have continued to keep PoPs aligned more with the
diurnal cycle.

Temperatures will average several degrees above normal through
mid-week, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to
mid 60s. Highs will then retreat to the mid to upper 70s on
Friday, before modifying back closer to normal by Sunday, with
temperatures peaking near the 80 degree mark. Lows will generally
range from 55 to 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

A few showers are lingering in southeast KY at the start of the
period, but an overall decline in activity will continue overnight
until it is all gone. The main concern will be fog development as
clouds decrease. It is already underway where clouds have left.
Think that much of the area will see IFR or worse conditions, at
least at times, by dawn. The fog will dissipate after sunrise,
perhaps lifting into a MVFR ceiling for a time before clouds
further lift and scatter out during the day. VFR conditions are
forecast from early afternoon on.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL