007
FXUS63 KJKL 252114
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
514 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected from time to time through
  the middle of next week, especially during the afternoon and
  early evening hours.

- There is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sunday and
  Sunday night, with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 514 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024

A few showers have begun developing in central KY again after
heating occurred this afternoon. They are moving east and should
develop a bit more into early evening, making their way into the
JKL forecast area. However, there is not much discernible upper
level support and air aloft is dry, so as weak ridging aloft
moves over us from the west it should help to shut off any
remaining convection late tonight. That will leave quiet
conditions lasting into Sunday morning.

Things get active again during the day Sunday, with a significant
threat of severe wx. Thunderstorm currently erupting over the
plains will raise eastward through Sunday as strong surface low
pressure crosses the Midwest. With mesoscale influences playing a
role, models are still showing variation in the evolution of the
convection, but a blended model solution would suggest convection
developing here in the afternoon. Forecast parameters are
supportive of severe storms in terms of 2-3K J/KG ML CAPE and
favorable speed and directional shear. This yields Bulk Richardson
numbers on Sunday afternoon and evening favorable for supercells.
The most favorable late day shear and instability is shown in our
western counties, and SPC has placed an enhanced risk area
extending eastward into that area (with slight risk further to the
east). Models are suggesting this initial round of convection in
the afternoon and evening, followed by more convection ahead of
the system`s cold front later on Sunday night into Monday morning.
Flow is more unidirectional with the later convection and
instability not as strong, but flow aloft is still brisk, and a
primarily wind threat is still a possibility with the late night
convection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 514 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024

Largely VFR conditions are forecast during the period, with a
couple of localized exception. A few showers/thunderstorms with
sub-VFR conditions are possible late this afternoon and evening.
Valley fog is also expected to develop late tonight and last into
Sunday morning before dissipating. MOS guidance is hitting the fog
fairly hard at TAF sites. However, if precip does not occur, it
would seem to be more questionable. A TEMPO group for IFR
conditions has been used in the TAFS for several hours around
sunrise.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL