032
FXUS63 KJKL 040851
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
451 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase through
  mid-week.

- Relatively cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold
  front which will pass through eastern Kentucky on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2024

Mid/upper level ridging is slowly shifting eastward away from our
area early this morning. This will open us up to the influence of
a deepening and growing mid/upper level low migrating slowly east
southeast over south central Canada, and shortwave impulses
circulating around it. One of these waves will move northeast over
the region today and interact with moist low level flow out of
the south to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Activity should peak late in the day and decrease
tonight as the initial wave aloft departs and we cool/stabilize. A
second wave circulating around the large scale low will approach
from the west on Wednesday. It will again take advantage of a flow
of moist air into the area from the south southwest and lead to
shower and thunderstorm development, with activity again peaking
late in the day. There is not model agreement on the QPF and
coverage on Wednesday, and a blended solution was used with POPs
of around 70%.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2024

General agreement continues with respect to the mid/upper level
patterns aloft. An elongated low and associated trough will
have spun its way into the Great Lakes region at the start of
the extended. The low...or mean low sets up residence over the Great
Lakes for the remainder of the period, sending additional short wave
impulses around the southern periphery of the mean low, into the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a relatively strong surface cold front
will move through eastern Kentucky late Thursday or Thursday night.
A stacked low over the Great Lakes, will keep our area under the
influence of northwest flow. Subtle short wave disturbances
passing across the region combined with wrap around moisture and
diurnal heating will keep a general 20-30 PoP going through the
period, with a noticeable diurnal flavor to activity.

Sensible weather features generally dry weather for many, though
isolated to widely scattered showers, commonly referred to as hit or
miss showers and thunderstorms could impact anyone on any given day
and at any given time. However, the most likely window of time for
rain would be in the afternoon and early evening time frames. Other
than Wednesday night at the start of the period, Sunday is the next
most likely day of more widespread rain as PoPs increasing to around
40% as another cold frontal system passes through the Ohio Valley.
After Thursday`s low to mid 80s for max temps, daily highs will
average around 5 degrees below normal, or mid 70s through the
period. Our coolest day through the extended will be Friday, with
Saturday being slightly warmer by a degree or two. With lower
surface dew points in the low 50s and a gradient wind around 10
mph, Friday will feel the coolest. Overnight lows will run in the
50s, though we may be flirting with upper 40s in some of our coolest
valley locations by Saturday morning.

Not seeing any solid signals with respect to hazards through the
period. Instability will be relatively low, with MLCAPES only
climbing to between 750 and 1250 J/kg Wednesday. Instability looks
even weaker for Sunday. At this time effective shear is not even
reaching marginal levels. Thus any organized convection will likely
be limited to features such as frontal boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2024

Valley fog can be seen developing on satellite imagery late
tonight. It will continue to expand overnight, and could affect
many TAF sites at times, but confidence in the extent is low. At
this time have only used a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions. Fog
will dissipate in the morning, leaving VFR conditions everywhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
afternoon, resulting in localized sub-VFR conditions before most
of the activity subsides in the evening. Confidence is too low
for anything more than VCTS to be mentioned in TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL