620
FXUS63 KJKL 291940
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
340 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
  evening, but most areas will remain dry.

- Below normal temperatures can be expected through the rest of
  the work week. But temperatures will then warm over the weekend.

- After a period of mostly dry conditions, it will become
  unsettled starting late Saturday into early next week, with
  chances of showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

A surface low is sitting over western PA forcing a cold front
across the forecast area this afternoon. Post-frontal showers and
thunderstorms are moving southward across Ohio and West Virginia
currently as flow becomes more WNW-NNW behind this front.
Expecting these will make their way into eastern KY in the next
few hours. Any thunderstorms that do form should remain sub-
severe, as parameters are not worthwhile with lack of favorable
instability today. Most of the activity will likely be winding
down this evening when diurnal heating is gone.

Patchy fog is likely again tonight with conditions going calm and
cooler temperatures expected. This is mostly for the typical
valley locations with poor drainage winds and any areas that
receive rainfall this afternoon.

Outside of morning fog it looks to be mostly dry for Thursday
under a broad area of high pressure. Below normal temperatures
will continue with highs in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Another dry day with below normal temperatures is expected Friday
under continued high pressure. It will be rather comfortable,
though on the dry side with afternoon RH values in the 20s and
30s across the area.

The change up comes late Saturday as showers and thunderstorms
return and temperatures reach the 80s for some locations. The
system responsible for the return of precipitation will be a low
pressure system that will move eastward out of MO and over IN/IL.
The associated trough looks to extend over the area for much of
the weekend and possibly into Monday, subsequently keeping showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast through that time frame.

Looking out a strong high pressure system over Bermuda will drift
westward just off the coast of the Carolinas. Temperatures look
to heat up starting Monday into mid-week where some locations
could be well into the 80s Wednesday afternoon. There remains a
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next
week with daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the evening. There remains a chance
for some isolated showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, but
confidence is lower in widespread certainty. Allowed for VCSH or
VCTS at KJKL, KSJS and KSYM as these sites have a higher chance
for some activity nearby. Any storms could cause MVFR or IFR
restrictions.

Patchy fog will likely develop overnight in the typical valley
spots or areas that receive rainfall. Models are also indicating
low stratus forming overnight across the higher terrain of SE KY
and into Pike County. MVFR or IFR restrictions will likely
accompany any fog or low stratus.

Winds will be mostly W`rly to WNW`rly today and will likely be
breezy at times this afternoon, especially across the ridges.
Expecting winds to taper down tonight, eventually going calm
after ~00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CORNETT
LONG TERM...CORNETT
AVIATION...CORNETT