860
FXUS63 KJKL 291655
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
1255 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
  evening, but most areas will remain dry.

- Below normal temperatures can be expected through the rest of
  the work week. But temperatures will then warm over the weekend.

- After a period of generally dry conditions, it will become
  unsettled starting over the weekend into early next week, with
  chances of showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Surface boundary making its way across eastern Kentucky this
morning. Upstream showers are rotating southward through Ohio and
will likely impact portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Updated the forecast package to increase PoPs slightly, mainly in
the north and also to increase sky with what appears to be a more
substantial cloud field than originally anticipated. No other
changes made other than to bring hourly grids in line a bit with
current surface observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Patchy valley fog should quickly burn off this morning. Otherwise, a
series of shortwaves will drop south into the area today, creating
showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Weak
instability during the period should prevent much in the way of
anything becoming severe, and bulk of convection should dissipate by
this evening as the shortwave moves east, and from loss of daytime
heating. Thursday morning will start out with areas of fog or
stratus, but the remainder of Thursday should be dry, and cooler, as
surface high pressure builds in from the north, with a northerly
flow in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Friday looks to be continued dry, but increasing heat across the
area as an upper ridge builds across the area. Dry air in place will
allow for a cool mornings both Friday and Saturday morning, with low
temperatures dipping into the 40s across much of the area Friday AM,
with a quick diurnal warming trend during the day. Showers and
thunderstorms return to the area later Saturday and Sunday as a low
pressure wave moves across the area. There could be a bit of a break
in the precipitation at the start of next week, but at this point,
the potential for multiple weak waves moving across the area looks
to be likely, and have maintained a chance of pops into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the evening. There remains a chance
for some isolated showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, but
confidence is lower in widespread certainty. Allowed for VCSH or
VCTS at KJKL, KSJS and KSYM as these sites have a higher chance
for some activity nearby. Any storms could cause MVFR or IFR
restrictions.

Patchy fog will likely develop overnight in the typical valley
spots or areas that receive rainfall. Models are also indicating
low stratus forming overnight across the higher terrain of SE KY
and into Pike County. MVFR or IFR restrictions will likely
accompany any fog or low stratus.

Winds will be mostly W`rly to WNW`rly today and will likely be
breezy at times this afternoon, especially across the ridges.
Expecting winds to taper down tonight, eventually going calm
after ~00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...CORNETT