Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
173 FXUS62 KKEY 051428 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1028 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Sunny skies greeted the Florida Keys this morning with light east to southeast winds with temperatures in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s by 9 am. Almost no net change in total column moisture was observed in the morning sounding since yesterday morning, with slight increase below 800 mb and slightly dryer above 550 mb. Some slight warming was noted near 500 mb, and indeed calculated mixed CAPE other indices pointed to slightly higher stability in the lower-to-mid troposphere compared with yesterday. Weak ridging extending from the western North Atlantic to across the Florida Peninsula is expected to maintain some integrity while beginning a gentle push southward with the passage of a shortwave trough across the mid Mississippi Valley into the southeast U.S. Westerly winds aloft may increase in speed slightly by this evening, with convection-allowing models holding rain coverage on the sparse side, initiating in the lee of the larger, Lower Keys on the Gulf side and later perhaps from outflow boundaries being carried northwest slowly into the eastern Straits. Otherwise, the light east to southeast winds generally below 10 knots portends the typical lower tropospheric descent in the lee north of Cuba. Will hold rain changes in the slight range this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 This morning, east to southeast winds near 5 knots were observed along the reef with significant wave height near 1 foot at just offshore the reef tract southwest of Key West. An Atlantic surface ridge stretching westward along the northern Gulf Coast will shift southward over the next couple of days. As a result, gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will slacken further and likely become variable at times. This ridge will remain suppressed southwards across South Florida and the Keys through the remainder of the week and the weekend. This will keep generally light to gentle breezes out of the southeast to south, but still with variability. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. With drier air present today, VCSH is not included at this time, but there is possibility of a cloudline this afternoon producing waterspouts and light showers. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest