Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
759 FXUS62 KKEY 221853 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 253 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The moist layer from the surface to the 700 mb isobaric surface sampled in this morning`s 12z KEY sounding is likely not representative of the current in-situ environment. GOES-16 visible satellite is only detecting a few streamers from the largest islands to the Bayside and Gulfside coastal waters, shallow cumulus clouds in the Straits, and popcorn-variety cloud cover over the diurnally-favored South Florida region. Surprisingly, even these favored afternoon showers over South Florida have struggled, fizzling out shortly after forming. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to near 90 across the island chain, with dew points in the mid 70s. For tonight, current meterological reasoning suggests convection over South Florida will continue to struggle, as mid-level dry air detected by CIMSS satellite total precipitable water product continues to advect towards the Florida Keys marine zones. The latest convective-allowing model (CAM) numerical guidance seems to be in line with this reasoning, and thus have elected to take thunder out of the forecast, and lower measurable rain chances (PoPs) down to dime levels. Beyond tonight, an expansive mid- and upper-level ridge extending from Central America eastward over the Gulf of Mexico will slowly build over the Florida Keys through early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a series of high pressure systems over the North Atlantic will promote an extended period of light to gentle breezes. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm, with highs near 90F, and lows in the lower 80s. Rain chances will remain low through Friday, limited to any possible boundaries pushing off the Mainland while there remains at least some low-level moisture to utilize. Thereafter, forecast soundings highlight even boundary- layer moisture eroding, and thus have PoPs out of the forecast altogether for Friday night through Sunday. Early next week, the areas of high pressure will merge, with a well-defined center forming just west of the Azores. This will be in concert with a shortwave trough approaching the Eastern third of the United States. Winds will respond, clocking around to the southeast to south, when we will have to see if daily thundery storms off Cuba can propagate to the Keys by the evenings. `Tis the season. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, expansive high pressure in the western North Atlantic will result in an extended period of light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Saturday. As the high shifts further eastward late in the weekend and into early next week, winds will clock around to the southeast to south and modestly freshen. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Light east to southeast steering will focus our attention to the Bahama Banks and what Andros can produce, which is not much at this time. South Florida is very muted. Late afternoon arrivals at EYW will have to contend with a thin and struggling island cloud line based at 028. VFR and light breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this date in 1997, an F1 tornado produced $150k in damage around mile marker 58.5 on Grassy Key. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 89 83 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest