Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
282 FXUS62 KKEY 220253 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1053 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 It`s been a mixed bag of activity as storms initially pulsed off the mainland and across the Florida Bay and portions of the Upper Keys. Isolated showers continue to move south and southwest across the Florida Bay and moving towards Marathon. Meanwhile, robust convection from Cuba sent out a healthy outflow boundary which continues to steadily march northward across the Straits of Florida. Only recently did the western flank finally start to dissipate but additional showers and storms continue to fire over the waters south of the Middle Keys. Temperatures are holding steady in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Going through the rest of the overnight, did bump up rain chances given that a well defined outflow boundary continues to move northward towards the island chain. The Lower Keys did see an earlier reverse cloud line but it did not produce much activity and therefore did not do much to stabilize the atmosphere. This was backed by this evenings sounding which did show over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE still present. The only caveat is that drier air has filtered in and any storms that continue to push towards the island chain may have to contend with this dry air. Models are all over the place with how tonight could evolve. One of the hi-res cams shows new convection firing as the boundary approaches the island chain. Others did not initialize perfectly and had this recent cluster pushing west of Key West. Therefore, have nudged up PoPs to low end chances (30 percent) and have reserved from going any higher given the drier air in place. Otherwise, outside of convection, winds will be light and variable, eventually becoming east to southeast towards dawn on Wedneday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1052 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 A weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic. As an expansive ridge of high pressure builds in its wake, light and variable breezes will gradually clock around to the east to southeast through Saturday, then to the southeast to south on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Isolated showers continue to develop along old boundaries moving off of South Florida, therefore have included VCSH for the Marathon airport for at least portions of the overnight. Meanwhile, an outflow boundary is surging northward and may produce additional showers and thunderstorms for both the EYW and MTH terminals. Have included VCTS from generally 06Z/22nd to 09Z/22nd. Otherwise, light and variable winds will clock around to the east and southeast sometime Wednesday morning. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest