Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
362 FXUS62 KKEY 310813 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 413 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Currently - High pressure over the eastern United States is steadily marching southeastward as a mid latitude trough shoves out into the Atlantic. The Keys are beginning to feel the high`s influence as winds have finally perked up, becoming gentle easterlies. This is quite a change from the prior unending nebulous stagnant flow. This past evenings sounding indicated copious CAPE, but precipitable water was modest at 1.6 inches and low level instability was limited. The increase in CAPE can be largely attributed to complicated upper troughing becoming dominant over the eastern United States and Gulf of Mexico. This contributed to early evening island cloud line activity and mainland originated convection. Currently, however, the radar is quiet. The steady breeze has forestalled night time cooling and temperatures are now in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the eastern United States high will drive further southeastward into the Atlantic. The Keys will fall further within the high`s tight pressure gradient resulting in freshening breezes beginning later this afternoon. The incoming modified continental air will help push highs back down to near normal by Saturday and dew points will dip to near 70. While the fall in theta-e will be a negative for convective potential, the continued troughing aloft and increasing boundary layer kinematics means a few showers and even thunderstorms will remain possible. The high will weaken as it elongates out into the Atlantic late this weekend and early next week. As a result, expect breezes to slacken. Dew points will begin percolating back into the mid 70s and temperatures will push slightly above normal. Rain chances will remain slight to low chance due to the continued lack of a synoptic source of inhibition and the return of high summer like conditions. Convective chances will likely increase a bit further heading into mid week as guidance suggests a shortwave trough will swing through the southeast and amplify, reaching well into our latitude. While surface flow will likely be quite weak, deep layered troughing and ample moisture will prime the environment any mesoscale triggers. For now, will maintain low to mid chance pops mid. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 A high cell over the eastern United States will drive southeastward into the Atlantic over the next few days. This will result in a sharp increase in northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters beginning late this afternoon. A caution will be in effect for increasing winds and an advisory will likely be required for all Keys waters tonight. Winds will oscillate in and out of advisory conditions through much of the weekend. The high will elongate out into the Atlantic late this weekend and early next week resulting in relaxing breezes. The advisories will likely be pared back on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will persist at the EYW and MTH terminals for the TAF period. Near surface winds will back east-northeasterly in the afternoon with a gradual increase from near 10 knots to 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts. The moderate breezes indicate low confidence in a potential cloud line, thus VCSH will be left out of the TAFs. && .CLIMATE On this day in day in 1871, the daily record rainfall of 2.81" was recorded in Key West. As of 7/15/2018, this observation is the oldest daily record standing for Key West. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest