Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
307 FXUS62 KKEY 220847 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 447 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 447 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Despite a threatening looking outflow boundary moving north through the Straits earlier tonight, weather across the Keys has remained quiet. The showers and thunderstorms along this boundary dissipated before making it to the island chain. KBYX radar is only detecting a few showers near the Lower Keys, otherwise, it remains echo-free. Last night`s sounding sampled very dry air about 700 mb, which has likely helped shut down convective activity over the past few hours. At the same time, winds have been light and variable, which have not provided a good source of lift overnight. Temperatures have been able to drop into the mid to upper 70s thanks to these light winds and occasionally clear skies. With dew points hanging steady in the lower 70s, it has been a seasonably warm night. It seems as though we may have gotten all of our rain at once for the month two days ago. Rainfall chances through the extended forecast rain from slight to negligible. The best chance for rain (only a slight chance forecast) will be over the next day or so as enough moisture may be available in the lower levels to possibly support a few showers and a thunderstorm or two along mesoscale boundary collisions. Guidance has been trending drier over the past few runs, so rain chances may need to be nudged down for tonight through Thursday night if this drier airmass becomes too inhospitable for shower development. Ridging will begin to build in through the latter half of the week across the Florida Peninsula and the Keys, bringing a much drier airmass across the forecast area by the end of the week through the weekend. Have decided to remove rain chances from a few forecast periods, and have maintained no thunder chances from Friday through Monday night, as the atmospheric profile will likely not support them. Ridging will remain the dominant synoptic feature across the region through the first part of next week until a trough moves across the East Coast and shoves it eastward. Thunder chances will return to the forecast by Tuesday as moisture returns to our area. Temperatures through the extended forecast will be a few degrees above normal, with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 447 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic. As an expansive ridge of high pressure builds in its wake, light and variable breezes will gradually clock around to the east to southeast through Saturday, then to the southeast to south on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Low-level moisture may lead to intermittent occurrences of MVFR CIGS at both island terminals during the early hours this morning, but major impacts are not expected as MVFR conditions will be short-lived. Easterly near-surface winds remain light near 5 knots, and increase to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and will become east to southeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 92F and the daily record warm low temperature of 82F were both recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 90 81 / 20 20 10 20 Marathon 89 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest