Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
901 FXUS62 KKEY 231845 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 It has remain quiet this afternoon with hardly any showers popping up on KBYX. That is not to say that there any any boundaries out there. There are multiple boundaries that can be seen on radar but dry air plus low level subsidence from a ridge parked over the Florida Peninsula is squashing any chances for showers to develop. Meanwhile, despite a light northeast wind, temperatures have had no issues rising to near 90 degrees with dew points in the low to mid 70s. .FORECAST... It looks like the Florida Keys are heading back to a period of dry weather with lots of sunshine and potentially dew points creeping back up. The combination of which may lead to some heat-related illnesses, especially for the upcoming holiday weekend. In addition, a weak wind regime is on tap, so not much of a relief should be expected. For tonight, our slight rain chances are largely being driven by the potential for any boundaries that may come off the mainland overnight. Even then though, the moisture will be limited and instability will be limited. In addition, with no convection recently firing across South Florida, chances are not looking good for showers. Low level ridge will remain in place such that our winds will likely be light and variable at times through the first half of the holiday weekend. By Sunday the ridge will attempt to shift east, which will allows winds to clock back around to the southeast and freshen briefly going into Memorial Day. Thereafter, the ridge will retrograde back westward over the Florida Peninsula and gradually become flattened while losing definition. This will once again result in winds becoming light and at times variable. Despite a low level steering from the east and southeast at times, moisture will be hard to come by. As such, only slight rain chances (10-20 percent) were kept beyond the holiday weekend. We will have to see if this holds as the trend has been to remain dry. Lastly, daytime temperatures are progged to reach into the lower 90s next week and if we cannot get enough moisture to give to produce some showers, then we could be looking at potential conditions for heat advisories. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain the dominant pattern, allowing for an extended period of light to gentle east to southeast breezes through the end of the week. During the later half of Sunday, breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south direction and modestly freshen as the high pressure shifts its position. Thereafter the high pressure will weaken with the axis settling across the Florida Keys, leading to another round of potentially light and variable breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both island terminals. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1903, the Key West WFO moved from the Waite building to the Weather Bureau building at Front and Eaton streets (which is now located within the Truman Annex). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 91 81 91 / 10 10 0 10 Marathon 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest