198
FXUS62 KKEY 281441
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1041 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024
Despite a very dry tropospheric profile sampled by the 12z
sounding at KEY, CIMSS satellite- derived total precipitable water
product is highlighting a modest moisture surge occurring in the
vicinity of the Upper Keys. Owed to this moisture surge, chaotic
isolated showers have emerged in the disjointed steering flow.
Outside of these isolated showers, skies are mostly sunny across
the Florida Keys, with temperatures already approaching the upper
80s at many communities.

For this afternoon, general meteorological reasoning suggests
further shower and isolated thunderstorm development should occur
in the diurnally-favored South Florida region, which may clip
portions of the Upper Keys late this afternoon or early evening.
However, most of the island chain should remain dry owed to the
tremendous amounts of dry air from just above the surface up to
the upper- levels. Slight measurable rain chances are maintained
for the first period, with no changes proposed for the first
period at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle
breezes will prevail today through Thursday night. High pressure
will emerge from the southeastern United States before the
weekend, then build across the western North Atlantic. Fresh
northeast to east breezes are possible by Friday night or Saturday
as the high matures near Bermuda. Small Craft Advisories may be
required for portions of the Florida Keys marine zones as early as
Saturday afternoon or evening, continuing through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Near surface winds are currently southeast at 5 to 10 knots
but will decrease to near 5 knots and become variable by this
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low
temperature of 83F was recorded in Key West set back in 2020. As of
this morning, EYW has not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it
does not drop below 83 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied
yet another record warm min temperature. Temperature records for Key
West date back to 1873.

Also, the daily record warm low temperature of 82 degrees was
recorded in Marathon set back in 2020. As of this morning, MTH has
not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it does not drop below
82 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied this record warm low
temperature. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  82  91  81 /   0  10  10  10
Marathon  91  82  91  82 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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