Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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813 FXUS63 KLBF 290245 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 945 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening west of Highway 83. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska. - An active weather pattern continues Thursday and Friday, then into the weekend with a continued potential for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures mainly in the lower 70s Thursday and Friday, warming up into the 80s Saturday through next Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Tonight, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will advance into portions of the Great Basin as a transitory upper ridge axis moves into western Nebraska. A southeast wind will develop tonight with moisture increasing below 650mb. Thunderstorms developing from eastern Colorado into Western Kansas this evening may trigger a northward outflow with isolated showers or thunderstorms across portions of southwest Nebraska. A few of the CAMs show this, and have introduced a slight chance across Chase, Hayes and Frontier County. Confidence too to to mention further north to near I80. Lows tonight from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday/Wednesday night, the upper-level trough will cross the Great Basin with surface low pressure deepening across Wyoming and Colorado, as surface high pressure persists across the Great Lakes region. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up across western and north central Nebraska. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday morning, with frequent gust of 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon. Expect considerable cumulus development as low level moisture increases. Highs to reach the upper 70 to near 80. Southerly low- level flow will bring PWAT values to near an inch by late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates near 8C/km and MLCAPEs near 1000- 1500J/kg will be present ahead of a lead disturbance coming of the Front Range. Deep layer shear will be on the weaker side near 30kts. The environment will be more conducive for locally strong to severe surface gusts, although large hail will also be possible with the strongest storms. The area of concern is for areas primarily along and west of Highway 83. Storms will initiate over eastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle late Wednesday afternoon, eventually congealing into a line, most likely across the southeast Panhandle across west central and southwest Nebraska per the majority of 12Z CAMs. Storms are expected to weaken overnight across the east. Excessive rainfall is possible, across the southeast Panhandle into southwest Nebraska as the low level jet maintains redevelopment. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 On Thursday, the main upper trough axis will reach western Nebraska. A weak cold front is also expected to dissipate as surface low pressure deepens further south over northeastern New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to be likely to categorical near and east of Highway 83, to chance POPs to the west. The severe threat will shift further south of the area where the main axis of instability will reside. Strong to briefly severe storms are still possible across far southwest Nebraska. Cooler highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With the upper-level trough persisting across the Northern Plains and Rockies, the potential for at least a few strong storms and locally heavy rainfall will exists Friday through Sunday. Highs will warm well into the 80s by Sunday and persist into Monday and Tuesday. Drier conditions Monday and Tuesday, ahead of an upper trough approaching the Northern Plains by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 942 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through 00Z Thursday. South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday morning and become gusty during the afternoon. A line of showers/thunderstorms will cross the area Wednesday evening. Gusty winds will be the main concern as the line passes through. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor