Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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390 FXUS64 KLCH 270814 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Wx map shows a weak frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex, with surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping southerly winds across the region. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over Mexico, Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 across the area. Radar showing a thin line of showers across Central Louisiana, with the stronger thunderstorms further northeast across Mississippi. For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon high temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from 108 to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory continues for the entire area from Noon through 8 PM CDT. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms, around 15-20%, expected this afternoon into the early evening hours as the frontal boundary approaches. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the area outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the activity expected to dissipate before Midnight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. For Tuesday through Wednesday night, expect the mid to upper level trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen, eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region. Increased low level moisture, coupled with periodic disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat. Slightly lower dewpoints and afternoon temperatures expected, thus not expecting the Heat Advisory to be issued for Tuesday or Wednesday. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) The main forecast question for the long-term forecast will be the relative strength of an upper-level ridge. A few disturbances will track across the region during the second half of the week, while at the same time, a surface boundary will stall along the coast. This set-up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will compete against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each afternoon will have the chance for diurnally driven showers, as daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence. During each afternoon, PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range. However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds limit daytime heating, rain chances will drop. Temperatures will be typical for this time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the high 60s to mid 70s. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) MVFR/IFR ceiling expected this morning, with improvement to VFR by 15z. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms around 20% this afternoon, thus will leave only VCTS in terminals. Noteworthy to mention if one does affect the terminal, strong and gusty winds a possibility as the area remains in a marginal severe thunderstorm threat. South winds 6-8 kts expected to continue, becoming variable 5 kts or less after 00z. 08/DML && .MARINE... A weak frontal boundary approaching the region today expected to stall north of the coastal waters tonight and Tuesday, with the surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping mainly onshore flow this week. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday, with daily chances remaining in the forecast through the end of the week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 71 93 69 / 20 20 30 20 LCH 92 76 91 74 / 20 20 20 10 LFT 94 76 93 72 / 20 20 20 10 BPT 94 77 91 77 / 20 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...08