631
FXUS64 KLCH 300436
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1136 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Increased PoPs through the evening hours in association with area
of showers and thunderstorms that developed this afternoon and
evening.

Convection has since pushed offshore as mid level disturbance
shifts southward over the Louisiana coastline. This marks the end
of severe risk for most or all inland areas; remaining risk will
be for offshore areas in the form of strong wind gusts and large
hail.

For those of us visited by storms, very high rainfall rates
resulted in some urban street flooding in many areas, although the
full extent of flooding will likely not be known since most
occured after dark. Bullseye observation for total rainfall was
5.95 inches from 4 PM to about 1030 PM in south Tyler County. The
public is urged not to drive into any roadways which may have
water over them at this hour (or any hour, for that matter.) Power
outages have been brought on by storms oncemore and will
hopefully be resolved in the coming hours.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and storms are on radar currently in response to a storm
system and a boundary that is bisecting the area. Storms this
afternoon will begin to taper out near sunset with a quiet evening
and overnight period.

Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still
centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course
of the period. We will see impulses quickly slide across the region,
leading to the possibility of seeing daily showers and storms.

MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to right at 90 and MinTs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s, yielding
MaxApts around the 90s range.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

An upper trof extending from the central plains into the northern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to slowly work across the region
keeping PoPs elevated Saturday into Sunday. The persistent low level
tropical airmass, normal for this time of year, will support a low
end risk of flash flooding due to high rainfall rates and diurnal
heating could allow for a few stronger storms both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

While there continues to be a fairly wide variation in model
solutions, the general trend is for persistent ridging over northern
Mexico to build up the Texas gulf coast and the western Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night into Monday which will suppress all, but the
most tenacious diurnally driven afternoon convection. NBM is
resolving isolated afternoon PoPs Monday through Wednesday and see
no justification to oppose this solution. The decreasing precip and
cloud cover will allow afternoon highs to creep back into the upper
80s to lower 90s through the first half of the week and heat indices
pushing 100.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

ISO/SCT storms generally north of I-10, with only one isolated
cell just south of LCH. With any storm, VRB winds with G35+ kts
possible. Reductions in CIGs/VSBYs to MVFR/IFR briefly possible.

Storms dissipate this evening with VFR/MVFR CIGs. While any FG
should be localized, BR with VSBYs between 4-8SM possible around
daybreak.

Expect another round of ISO/SCT storms tomorrow afternoon with the
usual brief reductions in CIGs/VSBYs in storm activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of
the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will
be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms
over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  69  85 /  20  50  30  60
LCH  72  86  73  86 /  40  60  20  50
LFT  72  89  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
BPT  74  87  75  88 /  50  60  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87