Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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010 FXUS64 KLCH 011136 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 636 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A rather quiet and stable night so far with muggy conditions and some patchy fog. A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to recover across the forecast area today with PWAT values around the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo and with daytime heating, CAPEs above 2500 j/kg by late morning, increasing further into the afternoon. Daytime heating should allow scattered storms to develop by noon time. This activity will likely be enhanced by a mid level short wave arriving late in the afternoon, especially along a sea breeze type boundary along the I-10 corridor that will try to push inland. With favorable CAPEs and mid level lapse rates, to go along with downdraft CAPE projected to be near or above 1000 j/kg, thunderstorms could get rather strong with some severe wet microburst potential. Therefore, the forecast area will be outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. Also, with the high moisture content, the stronger storms will have the potential to produce hourly rainfall rates between 1 and 2 inches. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be outlined for the forecast area. Most of the thunderstorm activity will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating and the upper level disturbance moves off to the east. Will still see a very moist and unstable air mass on Sunday. However, upper level ridging will begin to build in and this should help keep thunderstorm activity is check some what, with mainly diurnally driven summertime type showers and storms. On Monday, drier conditions are expected as the upper level ridge builds in further, with only isolated at best diurnally driven showers and storms during max heating in the afternoon. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The long range continues with an unsettled pattern regarding precipitation opportunities. While numerical guidance is limited on signals for organized systems, the rather chaotic upper level pattern suggests small perturbations may help trigger storms periodically through the midweek. To start, an upper level ridge begins to build over the Gulf of Mexico into Tuesday. Temperatures will warm further into the lower 90`s for most of SETX and SWLA while sfc winds continue to flow out of the south. However, the pattern remains progressive with ridging quickly breaking down during the evening as an upper level trough moves over the southern tier of the lower 48. Guidance has been fickle about assigning pops during the late afternoon / evening, however forecast soundings indicate a suitable environment to support thunderstorms should more sfc forcing become available. By Wednesday, ridging from the west begins to return creating a more stable environment for SETX and SWLA. It should be noted there is a very large well stacked strong low pressure forecast to develop over the midwest with a stationary boundary sinking toward the ARKLATEX region. Overall, this northern stream pattern will have little impact to the local weather. Hereafter, the unsettled nature of the northern stream interaction with the subtropical jet come into question with some guidance indicating the frontal boundary continuing to push toward the Gulf Coast toward the end of the work week. Additionally, the upper level pattern across the southern and southwest CONUS continues to remain rather harum-scarum. That said, weak ridging continues to show up in the tail of the long range pending the progressive behavior of the northern stream. Regardless, temperatures will continue to remain consistently in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s with lowered dewpoints possible by next weekend. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 With light winds, stable conditions, and low level moisture/wet grounds patchy fog and low clouds have developed. Expect IFR/MVFR conditions until about 01/15z, when daytime heating and winds increase to help lift the low clouds. With a very moist and unstable environment, expect thunderstorms to begin to develop by late morning and will introduce VCTS by 01/17z at all terminals. An upper level disturbance will approach this afternoon to help enhance storm activity, and therefore placed TEMPO groups at all terminals to time when storms will be at there greatest from roughly around 01/19z until 01/24z. VFR conditions expected during the evening hours after storms dissipate or move off to the east. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the weekend at around 10 knots, maybe up to 15 knots. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into the evening as a very moist and unstable air mass remains in place. Winds and seas will be higher in and near the storms. An upper level ridge will begin to build in on Sunday providing lower chances for showers that will decrease further next week. High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the Plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week with wind speeds averaging around 15 knots possibly up to 20 knots, and small craft exercise caution may be headlined at various times when speeds near 20 knots. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 88 68 88 71 / 40 30 40 0 LCH 88 73 87 75 / 60 40 50 0 LFT 88 74 89 75 / 60 30 50 0 BPT 89 74 89 76 / 50 20 30 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07