Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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554 FXUS64 KLCH 240453 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1153 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Clouds in the form of mid level convective blowoff continue to stream overhead. Widespread cloud cover and light ground fog is expected across the area tonight, along with not-so-cool temps and humid conditions. The inherited forecast package appears to be in good shape and no updates were made. 11/Calhoun && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Another warm and humid afternoon is ongoing across the region today, as we slowly become further entrenched in a typical summertime pattern. Temperatures currently range from the mid 80s to near 90 at a few spots, while dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are noted on satellite imagery, while area radar is quiet. A similar repetitive forecast will continue as we head into the holiday weekend, as ridging aloft remains anchored from northern Mexico across the Gulf keeping shower activity, and any upper level features that could induce shower activity, at bay. At the surface, weak high pressure extends across the SErn US, resulting in a light to moderate onshore flow across the CWA. As Gulf moisture continues to pool overhead and keep dewpoints elevated, a lack of rain will at the same time keep temps in the upper 80s to low 90s through the next few days while overnight lows will struggle to fall out of the mid to upper 70s. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 As the forecast period begins, unseasonably hot conditions continue on Sunday with south flow off the Gulf providing high humidity values to go along with the above normal air temperatures from some upper level ridging, with these conditions prevailing into Monday. Max afternoon apparent temperature or heat index value is expected to be between 100F and 105F degrees on Sunday and 102F and 107F on Monday. By late Monday, the upper level pattern will change slightly with some flattening of the upper level ridge that will allow for a short wave to move across the region. This system is not showing up quite as strong on guidance today as yesterday so the strength of a surface boundary and how far the boundary will move through the forecast area is still a question. At this point will just have a slight chance pop for Monday evening/Monday night to account for this. Although the upper level dynamics are not as impressive, still could be some favorable CAPE, shear, and lapse rates, that if activity can get going, it will be on the strong side. The boundary hangs out through Wednesday, although some slightly drier air may push in enough to bring afternoon heat index values below 100F. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Some clouds are lingering overtop the area; the remnants of convective blowoff. The expectation is for some low clouds to continue developing with MVFR ceilings to prevail through the early morning. Ground fog will develop at most terminals with VIS to 5SM expected. After 15 or 16Z, the typical diurnal pattern returns with breezy south winds and high cloud ceilings. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend as a tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the east and a series of low pressure systems across the Plains continues. Rain chances should remain low, although an isolated light shower or two cannot be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 76 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 76 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 76 90 77 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11