417
FXUS64 KLCH 280001
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
701 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

To say its hot and humid outside would be putting it lightly, with
observations across the region this afternoon showing truly soupy
conditions area-wide. Temperatures currently range from the low to
mid 90s, which when combined with dewpoints have resulted in heat
indices ranging from around 103-110 in most locations, with a
couple of isolated coastal locations seeing heat index values as
high as as 119! this afternoon. In addition, visible satellite
imagery shows only scattered cumulus area-wide, with no relief
from the heat in sight. Although radar is quiet at this time, we
are still in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
through the remainder of today/tonight. The ingredients are all
there for isolated severe weather however, we likely still need to
break that cap that was apparent on this morning`s sounding for
anything to get going, which may occur through the next few hours.

Tonight into tomorrow, the heat continues, with overnight lows in
the mid 70s tonight followed by highs in the low to mid 90s again
tomorrow. Only "saving grace" tomorrow will be slightly lower
dewpoints in the afternoon that should keep us below heat advisory
criteria. In addition, slightly better rain chances are on tap
tomorrow, with NBM painting POPs around 15-30% through the
afternoon peak heating hours. So still not widespread convection
by any means but could definitely see more activity than the last
several days which should help to cool some areas down a bit.

Heading into Wednesday rain chances increase further area-wide as
a weak frontal boundary meanders nearby and an upper level
disturbance slides overhead. Combination of these features as well
as the ample moisture available should be sufficient in producing
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best rain
chances on Wed look to be across SE TX and W LA, with slightly
less chances for central/south central LA. Better rain
chances/cloud cover should result in much more seasonal temps for
Wed, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

At the beginning of the long term we will have the upper ridge
shunted off more to the west with the surface high centered over the
Great Lakes Region and a warm frontal boundary ascending north into
the Gulf Coast States. Over the long term period, we will see a
series of disturbances move across the CONUS, bringing daily rounds
of isolated to scattered showers. The surface high over the period
will elongate as it moves over the east coast, allowing for nothing
but moisture rich southerly flow to move into then just exist for
the area.

Timing on the disturbances varies from model to model along with
MaxTs. Higher rain chances and coverage during the afternoon (max
heating) period will limit how warm we actually get. Did not stray
from the NBM temperatures which have MaxTs in the upper 80s to right
at 90 and MinTs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck
in the 70s, yielding MaxApts around the 90s range.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Sfc obs indicate that hazy conditions persist across much of the
forecast area, including all the terminals save KLFT...expecting
all sites to see their visibilities begin lowering with sunset,
with MVFR conditions prevailing through the night. Lower ceilings
are progged to develop by later this evening or early overnight
(except at KAEX) due to very moist conditions below 925 mb...IFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the night before
improving with sunrise. Convection cannot be ruled out
entirely...in fact thunderstorms have developed upstream over nern
TX which will bare watching...but will continue to keep precip out
the TAFs at this time.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well
into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday, with daily rain chances remaining in the
forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  70  83 /  10  20  20  40
LCH  76  92  74  86 /   0  20  10  40
LFT  75  94  73  88 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  76  91  75  88 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...25