846
FXUS64 KLCH 282228
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
528 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The severe weather threat has come to an end across the area with
only light to moderate showers over central and south central LA.
Activity will continue to taper tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are currently widespread across a
majority of the area, some of which are severe. We should see a
decrease in activity over the late evening hours. There is still
an Enhanced to Marginal risk over the area with the highest threat
existing over most of our SETX Counties.

Activity will taper across the area from west to east late this
afternoon and into the evening. Tomorrow is expected to be quiet,
with additional rounds of activity expected tomorrow and Thursday
as a boundary lingers in and around the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Not too much day to day change in the long term forecast with
daily isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon to early
evening periods. MaxTs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with
MinTs in the 60s to 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s,
yielding MaxApts around the 90s range.

By Friday morning, the warm front will still be lifting north
through the CWA with ongoing activity extending through the day. The
upper level ridge will remain centered over Mexico with a series
of disturbances moving across the CONUS over the long term period.
The surface high pressure will be off to the east of us, allowing
for nothing but moisture rich southerly flow to move into then
just exist for the area.

As mentioned in the morning AFD, this set up will lead to an
interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be
competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. The chance
for showers / storms and what we will see as far as max temps
will depend upon that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and storms are currently moving through the area with
impacts to terminals expected late in the afternoon and this
evening. Multiple rounds of activity are expected, with tapering
likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well
into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today through the end of the week.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch is no longer in effect. There are
still a few subsevere storms over the waters that will taper over
the rest of the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  88  68  84 /  10  50  30  60
LCH  72  86  74  85 /  10  50  40  70
LFT  73  90  75  87 /  30  30  30  60
BPT  72  88  75  87 /  10  50  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87