Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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721 FXUS64 KLCH 300840 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The forecast remains mostly unchanged, with the biggest concern being Friday, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a Slight Risk (2/5) on the severe storm scale. Today we do have another severe weather risk with our area under a Marginal Risk (1/5) with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. Looking at the threat today, CAMs show afternoon showers and thunderstorms forming at peak daytime heating, most likely along any boundaries that set up during the day. The environment looks favorable for isolated severe weather with high PWATS (+1.7 in), large lapse rates (above 7 C/km), and CAPE values above 2000 J/kg. All this with somewhat favorable bulk wind shear of 15 to 30 knots. Storms that do form today, if they can tap into the environment, could become multicellular or supercells. Friday looks to have a similar setup but with slightly better dynamics in play, with bulk shear closer to 20 to 40 knots and CAPE around 2500 J/kg. The past several CAM runs have all shown a QCLS/MCS forming in central Texas that will then track across the region in the first half of Friday, followed by a second round that afternoon. Unfortunately, the pattern doesn`t give us a break on Saturday as we are in another Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather. This springtime/early summer pattern will continue into the long-term forecast as well. Temperatures will be average for this time of year, with highs reaching into the upper 80s and lows in the 70s.&& .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A series of disturbances will keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday and the rest of the forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain planted to the east, allowing for the consistent onshore flow of warm and humid air into the CWA. Aloft, zonal flow, at 500 mb, several short wave troughs at trek over the region. None of these disturbances stand out as much as the others, so the no-period through Wednesday stands out as a major weather day. Models are not in great agreement for the mid- to long-term forecast, as the GFS shows the 500 mb flow becoming northwest on Wednesday while the ECMWF shows this change taking shape around Friday. Temperatures will be on the rise this week, creeping back into the low 90s. While we won`t have as much heat as last week, with the high humidity, expect heat index values to reach 100 most afternoons. Overall, we are in for an early summer-like pattern with sea breezes, afternoon showers, and humid conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Storms dissipate this evening with VFR/MVFR CIGs. While any FG should be localized, BR with VSBYs between 4-8SM possible around daybreak. Expect another round of ISO/SCT storms tomorrow afternoon with the usual brief reductions in CIGs/VSBYs in storm activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 69 85 69 / 50 20 80 40 LCH 86 74 86 74 / 60 20 70 30 LFT 88 74 87 74 / 60 10 60 30 BPT 86 75 86 75 / 60 10 70 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...87