Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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113 FXUS64 KLCH 241727 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1227 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Southerly winds will bring in low level Gulf moisture and help make things very humid. However, enough capping around that we should not see any significant shower activity. Current forecast is on track and no changes needed at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Expect a couple sprinkles or even an isolated shower with moist onshore flow this morning. However it will not amount to much. Were looking at another hot and humid day with highs in the middle/upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. Heat indices will range from 98-103 degrees. Expect very similar conditions as we move into the weekend with highs in the upper 80s coast and lower/middle 90s inland. With continued light to moderate onshore flow, heat indices will range from 98-104 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Next week will start off hot and humid, with high temperatures in the mid-90s across the region. Central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas could reach the upper 90s with highs around 97 degrees. This is mainly due to the high pressure that will extend across the region from the east coast. This same ridge will also cause our winds to be onshore, pushing high levels of low-level moisture far inland. This ridge is strong for this time of year, with our heights in the 97th percentile and 850 temperatures above the 99th percentile. The apparent temperature will be greatest in southeast Texas, with values rising above 105. The experimental heat risk tool supports this by placing a swath of our area under a major heat risk. Temperatures will improve on Tuesday as a boundary moves across the region. Models are showing a very diffuse and weak front that will bring sporadic rainfall. For now, we only have PoPs around 20%. Atmospheric dynamics still look marginal for this event so, as of now, we don`t expect to see widespread thunderstorms or severe weather. Conditions could change and we could see PoPs increase or even for thunderstorms to become widespread so make sure to keep an eye on the forecast. With the passage of this system will come a cooler and drier airmass, which will drop our temperatures back into the upper 80s to the low 90s. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Southerly winds will continue during the period helping to bring in low level moisture. Winds will be a little gusty during daylight hours with gusts to near 20 knots, then becoming light at less than 8 knots during the night. With cap in place, not looking at any significant shower activity, however low clouds will hover around MVFR/VFR for the remainder of the afternoon before lowering and becoming all MVFR during the overnight period. The high humidity will mix with residual smoke from seasonal agricultural burning in the Yucatan and central/southern Mexico, that some light visibility restriction overnight due to patchy fog and haze, that will lift out by mid morning on Saturday. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend as a tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the east and a series of low pressure systems across the Plains continues. Rain chances should remain low, although an isolated light shower or two cannot be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 72 93 73 / 0 10 10 0 LCH 88 76 89 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 91 77 92 77 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 90 77 90 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...78 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07