039
FXUS64 KLIX 300837
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The old front has backed off into central Miss which is where some
sh/ts are developing this morning. A few storms are moving NE as
they follow this boundary north of Natchez and this area through
central Miss should continue to fester until after surise. The MCS
that moved offshore of Cameron Parish this morning is following a
ThetaE gradient to the SE. This gradient will hang around today
and will set up from south of New Orleans to Lafayette up to
Shreveport. This will be the second area that sh/ts will develop
today. Most activity today will be the more normal summer type
pop up storms. The late afternoon/evening activity is being
advertised to move into the area again with models trying to
indicate the MCS over the northern TX panhandle running along the
old frontal boundary then dividing as one area moves along the
front and another moving along the ThetaE axis. Some models try to
keep this whole thing together, but this would be unusual and
some just keep this MCS moving along the Red River Valley then
disipate it after sunset today. Regardless of which way this
goes, any activity that decays west of the area could and most
likely would cause new storms to develop downstream in our area
and if they actually make it in tact, we would still get some
storms with it. The fcast will reflect this outcome for today with
scattered storms over about 2/3rds of the area. This pattern does
not change a lot for Fri, but some subtle differences are shown.
The old front well to the north will buckle into Oklahoma where a
sfc low will develop early Fri and move east. This should be the
main corridor for most storms to develop and travel Fri. The
ThetaE gradient will still be located over the area near New
Orleans except it will also buckle northward from just west of BTR
to Monroe starting tonight. This will actually produce a barrier-
like feature causing anything that makes it east of this line to
begin decaying, but moving into this drier air mass could produce
some strong wind speeds. That being said, downburst numbers are
basically nonexistant today and tomorrow. And the best numbers for
severe storms will be over and west of BTR and along and west of
a BTR to MCB line Fri. Synoptic models are promising a run away
squall line moving out of NW TX tonight into Fri morning. If this
were to occur, it would look menacing but should not hold together
very long as it moves across LA especially once it encounters
this boundary/barrier. Storms look to develop over the NW/NC gulf
Fri and move north along this barrier between BTR and LFT to join
the sfc low and new front that will be pushing through the central
plains. Other than this activity possibly moving over the western
most portion of the area Fri, that would be about it outside a
renegade pop up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As the sfc low ejects to the NE it will cause the deep moisture
field to also spread east(moving our barrier east) setting up new
gradients. The "barrier" gradient looks to be found from west of
Talahassee northward well into central Tennessee then joining the
sfc low to the north. The next gradient forms from SE Oklahoma to
BTR to NEW. These two avenues are also where most of the sh/ts
develop and travel except most storms with the eastern boundary
should be moving north bound unless cold pools can propagate storms
southward, while the western boundary would still be the MCS path to
the SE bringing our rain chances higher Sat. After Sat, it is quite
difficult to have enough confidence in any particular outcome. But
global models are causing the entire gulf south flow to move
gradients and boundaries northward as another cold front moves
southward out of Canada. We should see the first glimpse of this
late Monday as it moves into the northern tier of states. This is
advertised to be close to the area by late Thu and into the gulf
before stalling late Fri or early Sat of next week. Yes, we are far
away for any strength of forecasting but when all global models
agree on the same solution for systems in the westerlies, it does
make one take notice. But we do need to factor in the time of year
and that most of these systems stall before getting here or over the
area. We will need to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR will be found at all terminals today outside TSRA. MCB could
flirt with MVFR cigs for a short time this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A very normal summer pattern is setting up over the northern gulf
which is an onshore flow as fronts or troughs stall well inland. The
fcast will reflect this as southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain
over all waters into the new week. Any storms that are capable of
developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and
much higher wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  67  86  68 /  50  20  30  30
BTR  89  73  89  73 /  60  20  60  20
ASD  89  72  89  74 /  40  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  88  76 /  40  10  40  20
GPT  89  73  88  75 /  20  10  20  20
PQL  91  69  91  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE