700
FXUS64 KLIX 012334
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
634 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Thunderstorm activity across the area has cooled ambient
temperatures to below forecast values, up to 10 degrees. Updated
near term temperature grids from now to six hours out to reflect
these temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Tonight through Monday morning... Generally, a couple more upper
level impulses will move through for the short term forecast this
weekend. There is still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing
of these storms, like the previous days. And in general, the
models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue to struggle to
pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start firing up. So,
the timing will be the area where we have the least amount of
certainty tonight through Monday morning. But generally,
scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours with peak
daytime heating. Due to the higher lapse rates and instability,
these storms will have the risk of hail and damaging winds
(30-60mph). PWs are quite high, looking at the SPC sounding
climatology. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern
and could cause minor flooding or ponding on local roads and make
visibility while driving difficult. The localized flooding risk
will be higher for urban or vulnerable locations, as well.
Overall, stay weather aware this weekend as we continue in this
unsettled pattern for the atmosphere. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Monday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a
weak ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain
chances will be lower with an isolated shower or two possible
daily during the afternoon. Looking at the models, these isolated
storms would likely not be severe, but could have some locally
gusty winds. Temperatures will be a little warmer though, as a
result. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s with lows in the
mid 70s. Heat index values will be approaching 100 degrees for
most locations, especially Tuesday through mid-week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Current conditions VFR at all terminals, but there are SHRA and
VCTS across the area. Intensity is decreasing, but there is a
possibility of rain, albeit low impact, at any given location
across most of the area tonight. All terminals are looking at
lowered ceilings and reduced visibilities around sunrise tomorrow
bringing in MVFR condition and even an IFR instance at KMCB.
Except in the very immediate proximity to a thunderstorm, winds
should be light and southeasterly to variable. /Schlotz/


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast period
with southerly and calm winds (10-15kts) prevailing. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will be possible daily, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours through Monday. Then
isolated chances of storms will remain for next week. These storms
will cause local increases in waves and seas. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  86  69  89 /  40  50   0  20
BTR  72  90  74  92 /  40  60   0  20
ASD  71  88  73  91 /  50  50   0  10
MSY  75  87  76  90 /  50  60   0  20
GPT  72  86  74  88 /  40  50  10  10
PQL  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MSW