Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
664 FXUS65 KLKN 010857 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 157 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend continues across the Intermountain West today. Over the next few days, a couple of disturbances are forecast to pass through the Silver State. This will lead to a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, breezier conditions, and a moderation of the warming trend through early next week. By the middle to end of next week, a building ridge of high pressure will lead to an appreciable warming trend, sending afternoon highs into the 90s. && .SHORT TERM...Saturday and Sunday. Blended model guidance continues to advertise afternoon highs trending upwards a few degrees over yesterday. We`ll be looking at high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the district. A weak impulse will generate some lift across the Nevada today, which will lead to a chance of isolated showers later this afternoon in eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. Any shower that forms is projected to end during the evening hours. Additionally, a west to east pressure gradient will form in response, which will lead to an uptick in westerly winds by afternoon. Gusts in the 25-30 mph range will be conceivable through the evening hours. Afternoon highs trend downward a couple degrees on Sunday in due to the upper disturbance making its way further through the Intermountain West. The lift/vorticity associated with this system on Sunday will be east of the forecast area, so dry weather is the most likely scenario through the daytime. However, the gusty conditions are forecast to continue, with gusts again peaking out around 25-30 mph in the late afternoon and evening hours. By the late Sunday night, a more substantial trough of low pressure will begin influencing weather across the district. Isolated showers late Sunday night cannot be entirely ruled out in northern Humboldt County ahead of this trough of low pressure. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday. Monday, an upper level trough will move across portions of the Pacific Northwest leading to gusty westerly winds 25-35 mph, with scattered to numerous showers mainly north of and including I-80. During the afternoon in addition to the scattered to numerous showers, some isolated thunderstorms may pulse up across northern Elko county and into southern Idaho. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s for most. Tuesday through some of Thursday, dry conditions prevail as a ridge builds into the area. This will lead to above average temperatures in the 90s Wednesday through Saturday. Some moisture moves under cuts the ridge allowing for some isolated shower chances across northern Nevada Thursday afternoon. Friday and into the weekend the ridge begins to break down ahead of an incoming trough. This will lead to some more shower chances, all north of I-80. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours at all terminals. Winds this afternoon become westerly 10-15kts gusting to 25kts over most of the region. && .HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and is expected to remain there for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Finally, Lamoille Creek will be hovering around action stage for the next couple days and may even increase slightly as temperatures slowly climb higher in the afternoon period. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 95/91/96