734
FXUS65 KLKN 212130
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
230 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent high pressure over the Pacific Ocean keeps
northwesterly flow over the intermountain west thru the weekend.
Disturbances moving thru the flow provide unsettled weather
conditions with low probabilities for showers and thunderstorms
at times along with afternoon breezes. Pattern transitions early
next week with an upper ridge and southwesterly flow over the
region bringing fair weather and much warmer temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

Dry and fair weather continues this evening and tonight with
increasing cloud cover from the northwest ahead of the next bout
of active weather expected to arrive early Wednesday morning.
Slightly warmer temperatures tonight compared to last night with
lows in the low 30s to low 40s.

Jet energy moves in from the northwest with a jet exit region
situated over the forecast area by Wednesday morning. A deep
closed upper low will concurrently reside over the PacNW. Pattern
progresses with the the upper low and attendant cold front
skirting northern Nevada during the day, with the low moving east
into Wyoming by sunrise Thursday. This will bring light rain
showers to northern Humboldt and northern Elko Counties beginning
early Wednesday morning with a 10-15% probability of
thunderstorms near the Idaho border during the afternoon. Rain
accumulations will generally be around 0.10 or less. Gusty
west/northwesterly winds will also be a concern Wednesday with the
strongest winds situated over the northern half of the forecast
area. Winds continue to look to fall just short of wind advisory
criteria (sustained 30 mph, gust 45 mph) for the majority of
northern Nevada, though higher winds are likely across the higher
summits and mountains. Activity diminishes Wednesday evening and
thru the first portion of the night. Daytime high temperatures
reside in the low 60s to mid 70s with the cooler temperatures
along the ID and OR borders. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s
to low 40s with a similar distribution.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A departing upper low pressure system will bring light, isolated
showers to northeastern Elko county. Northwest winds will be
breezy but afternoon gusts will be around 20-25 mph. Highs will be
in the 60s and 70s with the warmest conditions felt in central
Nevada. Conditions will remain dry and quiet during the overnight
period with lows in the 30s and 40s.

A weak upper trough is forecast to form along the West Coast
Friday. The westerly flow will help to moderate temperatures with
readings near normal for this time of year, in the upper 60s and
70s. Winds will be rather light though some breezes to 20 mph can
be expected. Isolated light showers or buildups are possible
during the afternoon and early evening across central Nevada.
These will dissipate for the night period with lows in the 40s.

An upper trough will pass over northern and central Nevada for
the upcoming weekend. Light, isolated to scattered showers are
expected on Saturday but will become less widespread for Sunday.
Winds will be out of the west and northwest on Saturday with gusts
to 40 mph, but will be much lighter on Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the 60s and 70s both days with lows in the 30s and 40s.


All models are showing upper level ridging building in for the
early portions of next week. This will lead to dry and warming
conditions with readings reaching the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in
the 30s and 40s. Winds will remain light.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
for Wednesday. Winds will be out of the SW-W in the early morning
hours, but will increase during the late morning to early
afternoon and switch to the W-NW15-25G35KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many
streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will
experience elevated flows. This weeks cooler temperatures have
slowed the rate of snowmelt, however elevated flows persist. Late
this weekend and into next week as warmer temperatures return,
expect flows on many creeks and rivers to rise again, possibly up
into action stage.

Wildhorse Reservoir is in action stage. Recent cooler
temperatures are allowing the reservoir level to gradually lower,
however the level is expected to remain in action stage all week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None. &&

$$

92/86/86