047
FXUS65 KLKN 220915
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
215 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rain showers across portions of northern Humboldt and
northern Elko counties today, along with a 15% chance of
thunderstorms across northern Elko county. Westerly winds of
15-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will impact the entire region
today, with blowing dust and hazy skies possible later this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Jet energy dropping in
from the northwest tonight is bringing increasing clouds to
northern NV. By sunrise rain showers will begin across portions
of northeastern Humboldt county as well as northern Elko county.
Locations up near the Idaho border may see a tenth of an inch of
rain today, with diminishing rainfall amounts across central
Humboldt and Elko counties. Northern portions of the Ruby
mountains and East Humboldt range in Elko county may see a light
shower today, otherwise precipitation is expected to be confined
to areas north of I80. Additionally, there may be just enough
instability this afternoon and early evening to produce a handful
of thunderstorms across northern Elko county. Gusty westerly winds
will impact the entire CWA today, with speeds ranging from 15-25
mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Showers taper off across northern NV
this evening and overnight. Dry conditions are expected across
the CWA Thursday and Thursday night as a weaker westerly flow
aloft sets up across NV.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

An upper trough is expected to move into the region Friday with a
reinforcing upper-low moving into Idaho by Saturday. This is
expected to bring increased chances for showers into central
Nevada Friday with more widespread showers and gusty west-
northwest winds accompanying a diffuse cold front for Saturday.
Temperatures will remain mild however, rising into the upper 60s
to 70s on Friday before dropping around 5 degrees Saturday for the
northern portions of the state behind the cold front. Lows Friday
morning will be quite cold, in the lower 30s across much of
northeastern Nevada with a mix of 30s and 40s by Saturday morning
as cloud cover increases across the area.

High confidence exists for dry condtions early next week as a
ridge builds over the area. Winds will be fairly light through
Tuesday but southwest winds will increase by midweek with
troughing slowly working its way back into the the western U.S.
Temperatures will rise accordingly with a building ridge pattern
with highs into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday and lows in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Breezy winds from the W-NW expected to affect all TAF
sites early Wednesday morning, increasing to 15-25 knots with
gusts to 30-35 knots during the late morning to early afternoon.

KEKO is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many
streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will experience
elevated flows. This weeks cooler temperatures have slowed the
rate of snowmelt, however elevated flows persist. Late this
weekend and into next week as warmer temperatures return, expect
flows on many creeks and rivers to rise again, possibly up into
action stage.

Wildhorse Reservoir is in action stage. Recent cooler temperatures
are allowing the reservoir level to gradually lower, however the
level is expected to remain in action stage all week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/93/90