Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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801 FXUS63 KLMK 282317 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 717 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather and below normal temperatures expected for most of the upcoming week. * Rain chances return for the weekend; severe weather is not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Synoptically, upper level ridging resides over the Rockies, bookended by longwave troughing over each coast of the US. At the surface, broad high pressure is noted across the OH Valley. Current satellite shows a cumulus field well established across the region while KY Mesonet and local observations report current temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds continue to gust out of the west at 15-25 mph as the pressure tightens ahead of a shortwave, which is responsible for convection occurring over MN/WI. Expect dry conditions to prevail throughout the short term. Although CAMs are advertising isolated showers this afternoon, AMDAR soundings continue to reveal abundant dry air and a stable layer at around 730mb, which should cap any developing updrafts. Upstream convection should also weaken and dissipate by the time it arrives to our southern Indiana counties tonight as it enters into a less favorable environment. Winds will subside around sunset and back to WSW overnight. Temperatures will drop several degrees below climo tonight with morning mins in the mid 50s. Expect a cloudy start to Wednesday as wrap around stratocu advects over the CWA from the north. Winds are also expected to pick up again out of the NW with gusts around 20mph throughout the day. Lower heights aloft and cloud cover will suppress afternoon temps as well, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Sfc high pressure slowly working over the Great Lakes will be the main influence for our weather for the end of the week. Troughing aloft on Thursday will keep a northwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley keeping our temperatures pleasant with morning lows in the 50s and highs Thursday in the mid 70s. As highs pressure works eastward on Friday, ridging aloft will work over the Ohio Valley helping to warm temperatures into the upper 70s during the afternoon but with lows once again in the low 50s and even a few upper 40s, especially over the Bluegrass. Rain and storm chances increase for the weekend as an upper trough coming out of the Central Plains works eastward into the Ohio Valley. Sfc high will work off to the east Friday night this will allow for increase moisture flow out of the south to return to the Ohio Valley. Main focus for shower activity looks to be associated with a weak shortwave trough and associated vort max working across the area during the day on Saturday. There remains some model differences as the GFS wants to bring a weak sfc system associated with the shortwave while the EURO doesn`t develop the sfc low. Will keep about 40-50 percent PoPs for Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday and continuing the unsettled weather with rain/storms chances for early next week. With the return moist/southerly flow, it will also be more humid and warmer. Highs each day will be near or into the low 80s through Monday with potentially low/mid 80s by Tuesday. Lows will also be warmer and in the 60s from Sunday into Tuesday morning. Severe threat seems low with an overall lack of instability and even shear but enough for the occasional rumble of thunder with any development. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 716 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Look for VFR conditions to continue through this TAF period. Cluster of convection across south-central IL continues to drop southeast, but it is not expected to make it to our area tonight. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest for the next hour or two before the atmosphere decouples and winds slacken off. VFR conditions are expected again on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds resuming in the mid-late morning and into the afternoon hours. Gusts of 15-20kts will be possible through 29/23Z or so before slackening off again. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRG LONG TERM....BTN AVIATION.....MJ