Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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196 FXUS63 KLMK 301444 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1044 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected through Friday night. * Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady increase into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 It`s a beautiful late spring day with high pressure building overhead. All forecast parameters are in good agreement with reality; no changes are needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Quiet and dry weather will be in store today as surface high pressure slowly drifts across the Great Lakes region. Anticyclonic flow around the high will promote winds with a northerly component across our region, though they will be quite light (<10mph) given a relaxed pressure gradient. Much like the last couple of days, we should see a fair weather cu-field develop by late morning or early afternoon as the boundary layer begins to mix out. Highs today likely top out in the mid to upper 70s with very comfortable dewpoints (low 50s) by late May standards. Skies will clear out overnight and with surface high pressure still anchored to the north, we should have very light to calm winds. Temperatures by dawn tomorrow morning will range from mid 40s (near I-75 corridor) to mid 50s (west of I-65). Can`t rule out some patchy fog in the typical fog-prone areas, but dry air in the low levels should keep it from becoming too widespread. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 We`ll close out the work week with another beautiful day on Friday, thanks to upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure across the eastern third of the US. Temperatures will reach the mid-upper 70s across the board, and possibly a few spots in the lower 80s. However, a more summer-like pattern appears to be the story for the weekend and into the first half of next week. The upper level jet pattern lacks any substantial jet streaks across the US, with any notable wind energy remaining along and north of the US/Canadian border. This will result in a more zonal flow across the region, with only some subtle waves riding through the flow. A warm and humid airmass will spread over the lower Ohio Valley, leading to daily shower and storm chances and temps in the 80s for Saturday- Wednesday. The warmer days will be Monday-Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the mid-80s possible. Dewpoints will be muggy as well, with mid-60s to low-70s expected early next week. Our greatest chance for an increase in thunder coverage for the period could come Saturday afternoon and evening as a sfc low tracks across the I-70 corridor from St. Louis to Indy. Our probability of thunder reaches 50% Saturday evening. Currently not expecting much instability due to cloud cover throughout the day, with the 100- member Grand Ensemble showing that 80 members suggest SBCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. However, soundings do show some marginal shear due to our proximity to the sfc low and accompanied 40-50kt LLJ. Mainly expecting some heavy rainers as a result of the narrow corridor of stronger moisture transport, with PWATs possibly reaching 1.8 inches. This would be among the daily max for sounding climatology. This will support numerous showers with embedded scattered thunder chances, but overall severe threat appears low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions expected through most of the forecast period. Most sites have stayed fog-free through the morning with the exception of HNB, though that will likely burn off by the start of the 12z TAF issuance. Otherwise, a 5-6kft fair weather cu-field will develop by late morning or early afternoon and continue into the early evening hours. Winds will stay light through the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...13 SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...DM