Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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876 FXUS63 KLMK 310507 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 107 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected through Friday night. * Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady increase into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure slipping from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians will continue our dry, pleasant weather tonight and tomorrow. Under clear skies and with light winds, low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s in the usual cool spots to the mid 50s generally west of Interstate 65. More sunshine can be expected tomorrow though it will be filtered through increasing high clouds. Winds will pick up a bit out of the east as the aforementioned high settles over the central and northern Appalachians, with speeds around 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 On Saturday a 5H shortwave trough will approach from the west as surface low pressure advances from Missouri to Indiana, dragging its cold front through the region Saturday night. A 50kt low level jet will help to bring slightly above normal precipitable waters into the area as surface dew points rise into the lower and middle 60s. As a result, scattered showers and storms are expected to cross the area. Instability and mid-level lapse rates should be weak and organized severe weather is not currently expected, with better chances for strong to severe storms over western Kentucky and points south and west. High temperatures will be around 80. For the remainder of the Long Term a summertime pattern will establish itself right on time as June begins with quasi-zonal flow over much of the United States. At the surface the Gulf will be open and provide the region with sufficient moisture to support showers and thunderstorms when ripples in the flow pass through and at times of peak heating. The result of this will be rain chances in most periods of the forecast, but with the showery nature of the precipitation there will be breaks between rounds of convection. The best chances of severe storms will be over the Plains where instability will be greatest, though some of that instability may begin to spread eastward by Tuesday and especially into Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the northwest and moves through. With the summer pattern comes summer temperatures and humidity as highs rise into the 80s each day with afternoon dew points from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure across the region will keep VFR conditions through the period, with only some upper level clouds to speak of. A fairly dry column will limit the diurnal cu field today, with this TAF issuance mainly a wind forecast. As the sfc high migrates slowly east across the Great Lakes, winds will be around 10 kt from due east for most of the day. Upper level ceiling will begin to arrive from the west towards the end of the period ahead of our next sfc low. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...CJP