302
FXUS63 KLMK 291832
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
232 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected
    through Friday night.

*   Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into
    next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady
    increase into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure stretching from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes to
the Southeast will bring us dry weather and light winds tonight and
tomorrow. We`ve had a good day of drying today with little to no
precipitation, partial sunshine, and gusty northwest winds. Dew
point depressions tonight are expected to remain just wide enough,
along with a light north breeze, to prevent widespread dense fog.
Also, model guidance does not show a strong preference for fog.
However, it does still appear that there will be some sheltered
river valley fog for a few hours around sunrise. Lows will be around
50 (mid 50s in urban Louisville), with the usual cold spots dipping
into the 40s. There`s a 40% chance of rural locations from southern
Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass region slipping into the mid 40s.
Lows at the climate sites should be about 15 degrees warmer than the
records for May 30.

Thursday looks like another very nice day with partly cloudy skies,
a light northeast breeze, afternoon highs in the 70s, and afternoon
relative humidity values dropping to around 40-45%.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry weather will continue Thursday night through Friday night as
surface high pressure slides from the Great Lakes to the Potomac
Valley beneath an upper shortwave ridge. Temperatures will be
seasonable with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s under
partly cloudy skies.

For the remainder of the Long Term a summertime pattern will
establish itself right on time as June begins, with the main jet
energy aloft remaining well to our north along the Canadian border
and weaker quasi-zonal flow over much of the United States. At the
surface the Gulf will be open and provide the region with sufficient
moisture to support showers and thunderstorms when ripples in the
flow pass through. The result of this will be rain chances in each
period of the forecast from Saturday on, but with the showery nature
of the precipitation there will be breaks between rounds of
convection. The best chances of severe storms will be over the
Plains where instability will be the greatest, though some of that
instability may begin to spread eastward by Tuesday and especially
Wednesday as the upper pattern begins to transition into a ridge
west/trough east scenario.

With the summerlike pattern comes summerlike temperatures as highs
rise into the 80s each day Monday through Wednesday with afternoon
dew points from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

A band of clouds will pivot southeastward through the region this
afternoon. Very isolated showers may develop in this cloud field,
but chances of any particular airport getting impacted by one are
much too small to include in the TAFs at this time. LEX/RGA are the
airfields most likely to see a stray shower.

High pressure nosing in from the north will bring us clear skies and
light winds tonight into Thursday morning. Will probably see some
river valley fog around sunrise tomorrow but will keep the terminals
VFR with this package given a little bit of a breeze and dry near-
surface air advecting in.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13