Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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565 FXUS63 KLMK 270713 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 313 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and becoming less humid today after some lingering morning rain. * Dry and cool for most of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Earlier severe convection has cleared the area, leaving behind trailing stratiform precip. Back edge of that precip shield is near I-65 at this time, and will probably take long enough to exit that pre-1st period wording will be warranted in the zone forecasts. Could see lingering precip in the early/mid-morning hours south and east of a line from BWG to LEX, then mostly dry across the board by early afternoon. Upper low over the Great Lakes is broad but not that deep, and the shortwave energy rotating through the trof axis stays pretty well to our north. This will limit the sensible wx impacts, so while we may hang on to some strato-cu into the afternoon, especially in the hillier terrain south and east of Lexington, precip chances appear too low to mention. Temps this afternoon will be close to climo in a well-mixed boundary layer. Drier air coming in from the west will allow dewpoints to drop into the 50s by late today, setting us up for a pleasantly cooler night. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Notable upper level troughing lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest through Tuesday night, keeping deeper moisture bottled up to our north. An amplifying upper level ridge builds from the Rockies to the Plains as sfc high pressure strengthens over the northern and central Plains. Ridging builds east across the MS and OH Valleys through late week, resulting in a stretch of pleasant weather. Dry weather holds on through at least Friday, with temps running solidly below climo and comfortable humidity levels. We could even see some morning lows dipping into the 40s Thursday and Friday, but that will be limited to the traditionally cooler spots. Eastern CONUS ridging becomes more amplified heading into next weekend, and precip timing will depend on exactly where that ridge axis sets up. If the ridge is overhead it will serve to block incoming systems, whereas a ridge position near or east of the Appalachians would open us up to increasing precip chances in the southerly flow ahead of the next wave. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Convective line moving through LEX at the moment, but may well taper off to stratiform before the valid time of the TAF. Expect a post- convective environment at all the terminals roughly 06-08Z, with light rain out of a mainly mid-level ceiling and chaotic, often E-NE winds. Will handle the odd rumble of thunder with VCTS. Sfc cold front arrives near daybreak with a shift to westerly winds and a few hrs of MVFR stratus. Will keep SDF just above 2000 feet but take LEX and BWG a bit lower. As mixing deepens through the day, look for cigs to lift to VFR and winds to pick up to near 15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Loss of heating will allow the boundary layer to decouple after sunset. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...RAS