317
FXUS63 KLMK 281916
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry weather and below normal temperatures expected for most of
    the upcoming week.

*   Rain chances return for the weekend; severe weather is not
    expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Synoptically, upper level ridging resides over the Rockies,
bookended by longwave troughing over each coast of the US. At the
surface, broad high pressure is noted across the OH Valley. Current
satellite shows a cumulus field well established across the region
while KY Mesonet and local observations report current temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s. Winds continue to gust out of the west at
15-25 mph as the pressure tightens ahead of a shortwave, which is
responsible for convection occurring over MN/WI.

Expect dry conditions to prevail throughout the short term. Although
CAMs are advertising isolated showers this afternoon, AMDAR
soundings continue to reveal abundant dry air and a stable layer at
around 730mb, which should cap any developing updrafts. Upstream
convection should also weaken and dissipate by the time it arrives
to our southern Indiana counties tonight as it enters into a less
favorable environment. Winds will subside around sunset and back to
WSW overnight.

Temperatures will drop several degrees below climo tonight with
morning mins in the mid 50s. Expect a cloudy start to Wednesday as
wrap around stratocu advects over the CWA from the north. Winds are
also expected to pick up again out of the NW with gusts around 20mph
throughout the day. Lower heights aloft and cloud cover will
suppress afternoon temps as well, with highs expected in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Sfc high pressure slowly working over the Great Lakes will be the
main influence for our weather for the end of the week. Troughing
aloft on Thursday will keep a northwesterly flow over the Ohio
Valley keeping our temperatures pleasant with morning lows in the
50s and highs Thursday in the mid 70s. As highs pressure works
eastward on Friday, ridging aloft will work over the Ohio Valley
helping to warm temperatures into the upper 70s during the afternoon
but with lows once again in the low 50s and even a few upper 40s,
especially over the Bluegrass.

Rain and storm chances increase for the weekend as an upper trough
coming out of the Central Plains works eastward into the Ohio
Valley.  Sfc high will work off to the east Friday night this will
allow for increase moisture flow out of the south to return to the
Ohio Valley. Main focus for shower activity looks to be associated
with a weak shortwave trough and associated vort max working across
the area during the day on Saturday. There remains some model
differences as the GFS wants to bring a weak sfc system associated
with the shortwave while the EURO doesn`t develop the sfc low. Will
keep about 40-50 percent PoPs for Saturday afternoon/evening into
Sunday and continuing the unsettled weather with rain/storms chances
for early next week. With the return moist/southerly flow, it will
also be more humid and warmer. Highs each day will be near or into
the low 80s through Monday with potentially low/mid 80s by Tuesday.
Lows will also be warmer and in the 60s from Sunday into Tuesday
morning. Severe threat seems low with an overall lack of instability
and even shear but enough for the occasional rumble of thunder with
any development.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Expect VFR conditions throughout this TAF cycle. Latest surface
analysis reveals broad high pressure across the OH Valley while
current satellite shows a cumulus field developing behind the cold
front from the east coast into our region. Some hi-res models show
isolated showers possible today, but AMDAR soundings out of SDF
continue to show stable layers aloft and an abundance of dry air
that should limit any showers from developing. Gust winds from the
west will continue through around sunset before backing to WSW and
lightening to less than 7 kt overnight. Low VFR CIG with bases
around 5kft are expecting by tomorrow morning as well as another day
of gusty NW winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CG