Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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825 FXUS63 KLOT 051153 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this morning, especially across the southeastern cwa where locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding is possible. - Period of showers tonight, followed by mainly dry and windy weather on Thursday. - Below normal but comfortable temperatures through early next week, breezy daytime conditions through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Through Thursday: Surface low pressure was analyzed over north central WI early this morning, with a cold front trailing through eastern IA into central MO. The low will lift north-northeast across the northern Great Lakes through this afternoon in response to a deep mid-level short wave trough which is progged to take on a negative-tilt as it propagates across the region. As it does so, the surface cold front will push east through about the I-57 corridor by midday, and eventually out of our IN counties during the early afternoon hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances (discussed in more detail below) will end with the passage of the front, with clearing skies and dry and breezy conditions developing in its wake this afternoon. Afternoon highs around 80 are expected, with lower humidity and west-northwest winds gusting 25-30 mph at times especially across the IL portion of the forecast area. As for thunderstorm trends this morning, current radar depicts a cluster of storms across Lake Michigan and the central/south and southeast parts of the Chicago metro area as of 245 AM, aided by an initial weaker lead short wave and a 35 kt southwesterly low level jet focused into the IL/IN state line and southern Lake Michigan area. Some of these storms had produced downburst winds in excess of 50 mph earlier in the night, though the primary threat at this time appears to be mainly locally heavy rainfall across the southeast metro and into northwest IN, where some training of storms has been occurring. RAP mesoanalysis depicts 925-850 mb moisture transport maximized on the nose of the low level jet and precipitable water values around 1.80" across these areas. CAM guidance suggests additional storms may continue to develop across the southeast third of the cwa past sunrise within this zone of better moisture advection ahead of the second deeper wave and surface cold front, so we`ll be keeping an eye on this area for the potential for additional heavy rainfall prior to cold fropa. Farther west/northwest, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain possible ahead of the front this morning, but with conditions less favorable for heavy rainfall than with those across the southeast cwa. Farther upstream to our northwest, another quick-moving mid- level vort is progged to quickly amplify as it digs southeast across the upper Midwest this afternoon, transiting our area this tonight before exiting just prior to sunrise Thursday morning. This is expected to bring a band of showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to the forecast area tonight, while carving out an elongated upper low across the Great Lakes region through Thursday. This will leave our forecast area along the southern gradient of colder mid-level temps along the southern periphery of the trough on Thursday, which may support enough instability for a few diurnal showers/sprinkles as indicated in some guidance roughly north of a Rochelle to Valparaiso line in the afternoon. Strong mixing may lower surface dew points enough to prevent precip and make for just a stratocu field however, with better shower chances just off to our north into WI and over Lake Michigan. Have maintained a dry forecast for now, but will continue to monitor later guidance trends in case a few showers/sprinkles need to be added later. Of greater confidence are strong northwest winds on Thursday, which could gust 35-40 mph or a little higher in spots in the afternoon. Otherwise, Thursday will see temps ranging from the the low-mid 70s north of I-88, to the upper 70s south of I-80. Ratzer Thursday Night through Tuesday: A blocking pattern will effectively trap anomalously deep upper level low pressure from today and tonight`s cold front passages over the central and eastern Great Lakes through at least Saturday. The upper low may finally become dislodged into eastern Canada Saturday night into Monday. A west to east oriented trough axis extending from the upper low will gradually push south across the region during this time. Mid-level height rises will build in to start next work week, possibly followed by another trough digging into the Great Lakes by mid week. All in all, atypically comfortable conditions for the second week of June can be expected Friday through Tuesday, with below normal high temperatures in the 70s away from lake cooling, 40s-50s dew points, and overnight lows in the 50s. Gusty west- northwest winds will extend a bit past sunset Thursday and then settle into a moderate, occasionally breezy westerly wind the rest of the night due to cold air advection and a relatively tight pressure gradient. Friday won`t be quite as windy as Thursday, but still looking at northwesterly gusts up to 30-35 mph during peak mixing. Saturday and Sunday will be breezy (from the WNW) but only up to 25 to perhaps 30 mph, followed by onshore winds Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. The expected pattern configuration through day 7 (Tuesday) will not be conducive for any meaningful rainfall, let alone any real thunderstorm chances, during what is climatologically one of our most convectively active times of year. Late day Saturday- Saturday night and Sunday may offer some potential for isolated to widely scattered showers as the earlier mentioned trough axis pushes south, steering another pair of cold fronts across the area. Castro && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Main Concerns: - Occasional -SHRA and a possible period of lower CIGs this morning at the Chicago metro terminals, brief IFR CIGs at RFD - Non-zero chance of TS late AM-mid day near Lake Michigan, but likely safely east of ORD and MDW, a bit better chance at GYY A cold front was located just east of the MS River approaching 12z and will move across the terminals through the morning, shifting winds to westerly (gusts in the 20-25 kt range) in its wake. Occasional VFR SHRA can be expected until the frontal passage. Any redevelopment of TS with the front will likely occur farther east than some recent high-res guidance has shown. Low CIGs are confined to near the cold front, including at RFD as of this writing, and expect this to be the case as the front shifts east, and can`t rule out temporary MVFR for a couple hours behind its passage. A brief period of VFR -SHRA will accompany a secondary cold front late this evening and early overnight. Finally, on Thursday, west-northwest winds will gust to 25-30 kt by the mid to late morning and 30-35 kt just beyond the current TAF period. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago