Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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776 FXUS63 KLOT 291723 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1223 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant weather expected today through Friday. - Periodic chances of showers/storms return over the weekend into early next. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Through Friday: A high latitude mid/upper-level ridge axis centered across the Plains states early this morning, will build eastward across the Midwest into the western Great Lakes through Friday. As it does, the main belt of active northwesterly flow that has been providing the area with daily rounds of afternoon storms will finally be shunted to our east. A well deserved break in our period of active weather is thus expected through weeks end as surface high pressure sets up shop over the Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts the final impulse in this active weather pattern quickly peeling off to the southeast across northern IN. With its exit early this morning, the lingering rain showers ongoing at press time near the lakeshore will come to an end. While the lingering cloud cover may also clear out of the area for a period this morning, it appears that diurnal fair weather cumulus will redevelop this afternoon across interior sections of northern IL, thus leading to a partly cloudy/sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be pleasant today, if not even a bit chilly near the lake. Expect inland highs to range from the upper 60s to the low 70s, while onshore flow will keep readings in the lower 60s along the lakeshore. Dangerous swimming conditions are also expected along most Lake Michigan beaches today due to enhanced wave action from the breezy northerly flow down the lake. Following a chilly night tonight, as temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 40s, conditions on Thursday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today. Mostly sunny skies Thursday will push inland temperatures into the low to mid 70s, with mid to upper 60s expected along the lakeshore. Conditions will then begin to gradually warm as we get closer to the weekend as the surface flow turns back to a southerly direction following the eastward passage of the Great Lakes surface high. This is expected to push temperatures back into the upper 70s for Friday, though slightly cooler conditions will persist near the IL shores. KJB Friday Night through Tuesday: This weekend looks to start on a rather rainy note. A cold front stemming from an occluding low all centered the way in the Hudson Bay region of Canada will push across the region late Friday through Saturday. A developing low-mid level wave will spin up a secondary center of surface low pressure along the boundary in the central Plains late Friday. As the low/front moves through the area, we can expect a push of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. There is quite a bit of discrepancy on the path of the embedded low. However, models can agree that, with poor mid level lapse rates overspreading the region, just about all instability sufficient for thunderstorms will be confined to near and south of the low track where low level lapse rates will be notably steeper. The GFS and Canadian move the low across southern IL leaving us with a mere wave of showers along the front while the thunder potential appears low. The Euro brings the low directly through the CWA bringing a marginal potential for some embedded thunderstorms, especially in our south. The NAM through 12Z Saturday, the end of its latest run, tracks the low to our north which would provide a modest thunder potential area-wide. The GEFS and EPS favor the solutions of their respective deterministic counterparts, although both show at least some support for all of the above-mentioned scenarios. Regardless, the consistent signal is that we presumably shouldn`t have to worry about anything more than general thunderstorms. The ideal timeframe looks to be late Friday night through Saturday morning, although there is a growing signal for rain to stick around later into the day, especially if the southern solutions verify. Temperatures should warm through the weekend and into next week when we expect a return to the 80s for several days. Saturday will likely be kept in the middle 70s while low 80s are forecast for Sunday. Both days look to be noticeably cooler near the lakeshore, especially on the IL side. Most of Sunday should be dry, but some models are spitting out isolated pockets of rain during the day. There`s been a strong and consistent signal for a cold front to pass through the region sometime between Monday and Monday night with a favorable thermodynamic environment to support thunderstorms building out ahead of it. The GEFS, CIPS, and CSU severe prob guidance are all highlighting Monday for a potential for severe weather in the region. Luckily, the shear profile looks awfully unimpressive and not generally favorable for organized convection. However, if we can get enough instability built up, some stronger storms are certainly conceivable. A lot of that will be dictated by the time of day that the front decides to move through. A generally unsettled pattern will keep intermittent rain chances alive through midweek with another cold frontal passage and thunder potential perhaps on the scope for around Wednesday. Doom && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Satellite imagery shows some scattered cumulus across the area. Meanwhile, satellite and radar imagery depict a boundary pushing east towards the KORD and KMDW terminals with clear skies behind the boundary. Winds will shift to northeasterly behind the boundary by 18Z at KORD and KMDW, by 21Z at KDPA, and by 00Z at KRFD. Winds will subside overnight to around 5 kts with a shift back to a northwesterly direction. Another wind shift will take place tomorrow morning with northeast winds at 5-10 kts expected through the day tomorrow. All TAF sites will remain in VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Carothers && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ001-INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Wilmette Harbor IL to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago