514
FXUS63 KLOT 231058
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
558 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and t-storms likely Friday with some severe
  weather threat during the afternoon and early evening

- Another round of showers and storms expected Sunday with some
  severe threat

- Period of below average temperatures appears likely first half
  of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Today:

It`ll be sunny and seasonably warm today. A lake breeze this
afternoon will send temps back into the 60s near the lake,
elsewhere afternoon temps expected to generally top out in the
lower 80s.

Friday:

Vigorous upper low over the northern Rockies will emerge out
onto the northern High Plains this afternoon resulting in strong
to severe t-storm development over the central Plains later
this afternoon into this evening. This activity will likely
congeal into an MCS, tracking east across the Cornbelt tonight.
This activity will likely play a significant role in our weather
Friday, with at least a couple of plausible scenarios...

1) MCS will move more expediently eastward, entering our
western CWA in a weakening phase Friday morning, then continuing
east across our CWA, likely weakening, but with extensive
cloudiness and some rain likely limiting destabilization and
severe threat across most of our CWA.

2) MCS timing is a little slower, with either weakening
convection or remnant MCV arriving into our western counties
later in the morning. This would likely allow for more heating
and destabilization across our CWA and result in either a
reinvigoration of ongoing weaker convection or renewed
convective development during the afternoon.

If scenario 2, or some hybrid of scenario 2 ends up happening,
then there would be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and early evening. Vigorous, negatively tilted
upper trough/closed low is expected to remain far enough
northwest to only bring our area a glancing blow of stronger
mid-upper level flow and resultant shear. However, given
moderate instability, modest shear would likely still support
multicell storms with an attendant lower end threat of locally
damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail.

If tonight`s convection develops into a more organized MCS,
spawning a stronger MCV, then that feature in a scenario 2 set-
up could result in locally stronger shear and a localized more
concentrated meaningful severe wx threat Friday afternoon and
evening. As is often the case around here, we will need to wait
and see how convection evolves tonight, before getting a good
handle on magnitude and scope of any severe wx threat locally
Friday.

Saturday:

Definitely looks like the best weather day of the holiday
weekend with sunny skies with seasonable high temps in the 70s.
Northwest winds will probably be light enough to allow for an
afternoon lake breeze to provide cooler temps near the lake Sat
PM.

Sunday-Sunday night:

Another strong shortwave trough is progged to move across the
Plains Saturday and into the mid Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes Sunday. Still some spread in timing and track of the
attendant sfc low, which will dictate how far north the warm
front (and stronger instability) will get. GEFS and EPS both
have a majority of members tracking the sfc low across northern
Illinois Sunday afternoon or evening, with several members
farther south and some farther north. Ultimately, it is too soon
to say with much certainty exactly how far north the low and
warm front will get, there is always potential for prior
convection to keep effective boundary farther south.

Synoptically, GFS and ECMWF suggest there will be a coupled
upper jet structure with strong synoptic ascent. While nose of
mid level jet is progged to be south of our area, should still
see sufficient deep layer shear to support a meaningful severe
weather threat Sunday afternoon and evening in the warm sector
of the cyclone (however far north it gets). While the entire day
probably won`t be a wash out Sunday, most of our CWA should see
one, if not a couple rounds of showers and storms Sunday into
Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday:

GEFS and EPS both suggest the upper trough responsible for
Sunday stormy weather will deepen and hang around the
northeastern U.S. early next week. There are growing indications
that this could result in our first several day period of
solidly below average temperatures in quite some time. Can`t
rule out a subtle northwest flow low amplitude shortwave
rippling down the backside of this trough and maybe bringing a
brief period or two of a few showers to the area, but overall
Monday-Wednesday looks to be fairly dry. The day to day chance
pops early next week are just slightly above climo pops and
reflect that small chance of a few brief showers at some point
early next week.

- Izzi

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Aviation Concerns:

- Southwesterly winds prevail today (except where lake breeze
  occurs), before everything turns southeasterly tonight.

- Lake breeze sets up and tracks through GYY, MDW, and ORD
  roughly 19-21z, turning southwest winds to more east/east-
  northeast.

The quiet aviation forecast continues for the period.
Southwesterly winds across much of the region will persist
today as the coverage area remains stuck in the middle of the
exiting large MCV and trailing boundary positioned well to the
northeast and south. Expecting a lake breeze to develop this afternoon,
around 19-21z, then track south and west impacting GYY, MDW,
and ORD. With the easterly flow off the lake, and general
diurnal heating, forecast calls for development of FEW to
pockets of SCT during the afternoon into the evening. VFR
ceilings persist throughout the entire period, however
southeasterly winds increase overnight and begin to ramp up
Friday morning ahead of the next approaching system.

Baker

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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