325
FXUS66 KLOX 251838
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1138 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/321 AM.

A warming trend is expected through early next week, most notably
away from the coast in response departing trough. Night to
morning low clouds will become less common away from the coast
during this time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/847 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this morning ranged from around 2900
ft deep at VBG to around 3600 ft deep at LAX. Low clouds covered
much of the coast and vlys this morning, altho some breaks in the
low cloud cover were noted especially along the southern SBA
County coast and into some of the VTU County vlys. The low clouds
are expected to clear back to or off the coast by early this
afternoon, with mostly sunny skies for most areas.

Gusty NW winds will persist over SW SBA County thru this
afternoon, with gusty W-NW winds for the Antelope Vly into the
foothills and I- 5 Corridor. Winds are expected to be mostly sub-
Advisory thru this afternoon. Elsewhere, breezy to gusty SW-NW
winds can be expected this afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

A warming trend is likely through Monday, especially for
elevations above 1500 feet or so as the marine layer and
associated low clouds will likely shrink in height and coverage in
response to a departing trough and associated increasing weight
of the atmosphere. Most coastal areas will only warm 3-6 degrees
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Elevations above
1000-1500 feet and especially interior areas will see warming of
10-15 degrees with highs in the 80s to near 90.

West to northwest flow will continue through Monday with a 30-50
percent chance of advisory level winds each afternoon and evening
for areas prone to northwest winds such as southwest Santa Barbara
County and western Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/323 AM.

We have only moderate confidence in the forecast mid week and
beyond as the timing of weak trough/ridge systems becomes out of
sync within our guidance. This will have limited impacts at the
coast with daytime highs likely within three degrees of forecast
with continued mid 60s to mid 70s for daytime highs. Away from the
coast, including many coastal valleys, may be 5-8 degrees off of
the forecast and could be the difference between highs near 80 or
90-95.

Night to morning low clouds will likely prevail for coastal areas,
expanding into the valleys and lower coastal mountains at times
through this period as a weak trough or two progresses through
the region. Seasonably breezy onshore to northwest winds will
likely continue each afternoon to evening with interior areas
prone to west to northwest winds as well as southwest Santa
Barbara County potentially reaching advisory levels at times.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1834Z.

At 1757Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 6600 feet with a temperature of 10 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs. Low to moderate confidence in
coastal/valley TAFs, due to uncertainties in the behavior of the
marine layer stratus. Timing of flight cat changes could be off
by +/- 3 hours, and cigs heights after 03Z are likely to bounce
at times from OVC010-BKN025, especially in the morning hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely scatter
and reform through the morning with the bet chance of clearing
form 21Z-05Z. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3
hours. There is a 10% chance of SE wind up to 8-10 kt from
10Z-16Z Sun.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely scatter
and reform through the morning with the bet chance of clearing
form 21Z-06Z. Cigs tonight are likely to bounce from
OVC015-BKN030.

&&

.MARINE...25/843 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast, with higher confidence
in winds relative to seas.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected to continue through this weekend and much of next
week. Winds may briefly drop below advisory levels during the
morning and very early afternoon hours today through Monday, but
restrengthen to SCA levels by late afternoon. There is a 30-40%
chance of Gale Force winds Tuesday night through Wednesday. As for
seas, starting Tuesday morning seas will build to SCA levels and
becoming steep and choppy through at least Thursday night.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds
will push into the western portion of the waters this afternoon
and evening. Then, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds during
the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds and seas are likely
(60-70%), with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 70-80% chance of SCA
level winds across the the Santa Barbara Channel (strongest in the
western portion) returning this afternoon and evening, and a 40%
chance of returning as early as late this morning. There is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the
Channel each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. South of the
Channel Islands, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds pushing
into the western portion of the southern inner waters tonight
with choppy SCA seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Sirard
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox