457
FXUS66 KLOX 182357
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
457 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...18/1244 PM.

Low clouds will continue to be a staple of the forecast for coast
and valleys through Monday, and struggling to clear each
afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will occur across the interior
valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing
marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...18/117 PM.

No changes from this morning or really the last several days. We
are seeing a little better clearing today in some areas, but not
so much along the Central Coast. Based on the clearing trends from
satellite it does look like most of LA County coast/valleys will
clear out by later afternoon and Ventura County has seen some
clearing as well, but still pretty overcast in coastal SB County
and throughout most of the Central Coast.

Probably a very similar pattern for Sunday with a small chance of
some morning drizzle for coast/valleys. Highs in most areas in the
60s but as high as around 70 where there is more clearing.

On Monday a weak low pressure system, currently centered 1000
miles west of Los Angeles, will pass through extreme southern
California will drawing a deeper trough passing through the
northwest states down closer to California. This will bring some
noticeable changes. Temperatures will drop to below normal for the
interior areas. Coastal and valleys areas will also drop a few
degrees, and will likely see an even deeper marine layer and more
drizzle. Low clouds could even push into some interior valleys
like Cuyama and the Antelope Valley. Southern Santa Barbara County
and western Ventura County would be the one exception, as
increasing northwest flow will likely bring an area of low cloud
clearing in the morning or early afternoon. This would locally
counteract the cooling factor there, and form a coastal eddy to
the east. There is chance that the marine layer grows too deep to
support itself, with more clearing than we have been seeing
overall by Monday afternoon.

Models still in good agreement showing much weaker onshore flow
Tuesday as the trough passes to the east. Expecting faster and
more complete clearing in all areas, though can`t rule out some
stubborn low clouds near the coast. Coastal valleys will see the
biggest adjustment with highs bouncing back to the high 70s and
possibly low 80s. There will be some northeast breezes across the
mountains and other interior areas but those should be below
advisory levels. Otherwise, just the standard onshore sea breezes
for most coast/valleys.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...18/252 AM.

As the aforementioned low pressure system moves to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, this will weaken the onshore pressure
gradients and flow (LAX-DAG predicted to go from +6 millibars
Monday morning to +2 millibars on Tuesday). This should cause the
marine layer to lower some and not push as far inland as it has
been. The northwest flow over Santa Barbara County and the
northern mountains will also continue to make low clouds over
southern Santa Barbara and western Ventura Counties less
favorable. As a result, Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the
warmest over coastal and valleys areas over the last week or two
with coastal temperatures starting to sniff normal values. Beyond
that there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Several of the
ensemble members show further warming to close out the week, while
a significant amount show onshore flow strengthening and the
marine layer expanding once again. The most likely outcome is a
return to conditions like we have been seeing by Thursday or
Friday of next week, with cool and cloudy conditions on the
coastal side of the mountains, with warmer than usual and breezy
conditions over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...18/2356Z.

At 1715Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Clouds lingered across many coastal/valley areas this afternoon,
except LA county where there has been better clearing. MVFR cigs
expected to persist across most TAF sites tonight into Sunday
morning, potentially lingering across coastal TAFS into the
afternoon hours on Sunday.

Hi confidence that desert airfields will have VFR conds thru the
fcst period, along with gusty W winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs expected to linger
tonight through Sunday morning, transitioning to VFR cigs by
Sunday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of clouds burning
off on Sunday afternoon. No significant E wind component
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of MVFR cigs at KBUR
could be +/- 2 hours from current projected time. MVFR cigs likely
to linger into Sunday morning, then burning off on Sunday
afternoon. However, there is a 20% chance of no burnoff on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...18/121 PM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the forecast. Winds and
seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru Sun.
There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late Sun in the northern
zone (PZZ670). SCA conds are likely there Sun night, with a 40%
chance elsewhere. SCA level winds and some SCA level seas are
likely across the entire outer waters Mon thru Tue night. There
is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level winds at times Wed especially the
northern waters, then conds should be below SCA levels for Thu.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. Conds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru
Thu, except for a 20%-30% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times
mainly afternoon and evening hours Tue thru Wed.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high
confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA
levels for the majority of the area thru Thu. However, in western
portions of the SBA Channel, there is a 30% chance of SCA level
wind gusts at times during the afternoon/eve hours Mon thru Wed.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox