Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
480 FXUS66 KLOX 301140 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 440 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...30/339 AM. A slight warming trend will occur through Friday as onshore flow decreases beneath weak high pressure aloft. Warming will be most pronounced away from the coast, but closer to the coast, low clouds will continue to hug the beaches each afternoon and evening and keep the coast near persistence. A deeper marine layer depth will bring cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend as onshore flow strengthens. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...30/418 AM. Onshore flow remains in place across the area this morning, albeit weaker than the past several days as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Clouds are noticeably absent along the Central Coast, except for a patch of low clouds and dense fog stretching from KVBG and KLPC toward KIZA. Farther to the south, an eddy circulation is regenerating over the southern California bight. Low clouds are expanding and extending back into the valleys this morning and will likely fill in over much of the valleys later this morning. Clouds will struggle to clear from the land mass again this afternoon as May Gray keeps its hold on the South Coast of California. Outside of the marine layer and away from the coast, a warming trend will take shape through Friday as 500 mb heights climb slightly. 950 mb temperatures warm by about a degree or two across the interior as less marine influence will make its way into the interior valleys. Onshore flow with troughing aloft will strengthen over the weekend and bring a cooling trend and deepening marine layer depth. Low clouds and fog should spread well into the valleys by Saturday morning and likely struggle to clear from the coast. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...30/438 AM. EPS cloud cover means suggest low clouds and fog hugging the coast into early next week as onshore flow will persist. A cooling trend looks to bottom out on Sunday or Monday as strong onshore pressure gradients linger. EPS temperature means climb between Monday and next Thursday. Persistence should be the best forecast along the coast into next week, while a warming trend will develop, especially across the interior valleys. With EPS temperature means climbing significantly between Tuesday and next Thursday, temperatures break away from NBM values as EPS solutions offer up run-to-run consistency in advertising warming away from the coast. In fact, NBM solutions suggest a greater than 60 percent chance of the Antelope Valley seeing its first 100 degree day. If this occurs, this would best the climatological normal date by about a week. && .AVIATION...30/0056Z. At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4100 feet with a temperature of 20 C. High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in Central Coast TAFs. Low to moderate confidence in all other TAFs (sites south of Point Conception). Flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of IFR- LIFR cigs at KSMX from 10Z-16Z Thu. Once arrived, there is a chance that CIGs do not clear through the period for KSBA (30%), KOXR and KCMA(40%), and KSMO, KLGB, and KLAX (20%). There is a 20% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR and KCMA. For KBUR and KVNY, there is a 10% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 20% chance of LIFR conds from 10Z-15Z Thu. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. Once arrived, there is a 20% chance of CIGs not clearing through the period. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt from 10Z-16Z Thu. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 20% chance of BKN004 cigs and vsby of around 2SM from 10Z-15Z Thu. && .MARINE...30/351 AM. Moderate confidence in forecast. In the outer waters, fairly large and steep seas were near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. Local SCA level winds will overspread much of the waters by afternoon, then continue into late tonight. There is 30% chance of SCA level winds Fri/Fri night in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). SCA level winds/seas are likely (70-80% chance) across much of the outer waters Sat thru Mon. In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, seas were large and steep enough to be at SCA levels this morning. SCA level NW winds are likely (60-70% chance) this afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected late tonight thru Sat morning. SCA level winds are likely (60-70%) chance during the afternoon/eve hours Sat thru Mon. In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the afternoon/eve hours today, Sat and Sun. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...Lund MARINE...DB SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox