480
FXUS66 KLOX 301140
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
440 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...30/339 AM.

A slight warming trend will occur through Friday as onshore flow
decreases beneath weak high pressure aloft. Warming will be most
pronounced away from the coast, but closer to the coast, low
clouds will continue to hug the beaches each afternoon and
evening and keep the coast near persistence. A deeper marine
layer depth will bring cooler temperatures are expected over the
weekend as onshore flow strengthens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...30/418 AM.

Onshore flow remains in place across the area this morning, albeit
weaker than the past several days as high pressure aloft builds
over the region. Clouds are noticeably absent along the Central
Coast, except for a patch of low clouds and dense fog stretching
from KVBG and KLPC toward KIZA. Farther to the south, an eddy
circulation is regenerating over the southern California bight.
Low clouds are expanding and extending back into the valleys this
morning and will likely fill in over much of the valleys later
this morning. Clouds will struggle to clear from the land mass
again this afternoon as May Gray keeps its hold on the South Coast
of California.

Outside of the marine layer and away from the coast, a warming
trend will take shape through Friday as 500 mb heights climb
slightly. 950 mb temperatures warm by about a degree or two
across the interior as less marine influence will make its way
into the interior valleys.

Onshore flow with troughing aloft will strengthen over the
weekend and bring a cooling trend and deepening marine layer
depth. Low clouds and fog should spread well into the valleys by
Saturday morning and likely struggle to clear from the coast.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...30/438 AM.

EPS cloud cover means suggest low clouds and fog hugging the coast
into early next week as onshore flow will persist. A cooling trend
looks to bottom out on Sunday or Monday as strong onshore
pressure gradients linger. EPS temperature means climb between
Monday and next Thursday. Persistence should be the best forecast
along the coast into next week, while a warming trend will
develop, especially across the interior valleys. With EPS
temperature means climbing significantly between Tuesday and next
Thursday, temperatures break away from NBM values as EPS solutions
offer up run-to-run consistency in advertising warming away from
the coast. In fact, NBM solutions suggest a greater than 60
percent chance of the Antelope Valley seeing its first 100 degree
day. If this occurs, this would best the climatological normal
date by about a week.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0056Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in Central
Coast TAFs. Low to moderate confidence in all other TAFs (sites
south of Point Conception). Flight cat changes could be off by +/-
3 hours. There is a 30% chance of IFR- LIFR cigs at KSMX from
10Z-16Z Thu. Once arrived, there is a chance that CIGs do not
clear through the period for KSBA (30%), KOXR and KCMA(40%), and KSMO,
KLGB, and KLAX (20%). There is a 20% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR
and KCMA. For KBUR and KVNY, there is a 10% chance of no cigs
developing tonight, and a 20% chance of LIFR conds from 10Z-15Z
Thu.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off
by +/- 3 hours. Once arrived, there is a 20% chance of CIGs not
clearing through the period. There is a 20% chance of an east
wind component of 7-8 kt from 10Z-16Z Thu.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of no
cigs developing tonight, and a 20% chance of BKN004 cigs and vsby
of around 2SM from 10Z-15Z Thu.

&&

.MARINE...30/351 AM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, fairly large and steep seas were near Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. Local SCA level winds will overspread
much of the waters by afternoon, then continue into late tonight.
There is 30% chance of SCA level winds Fri/Fri night in the
northern two zones (PZZ670/673). SCA level winds/seas are likely
(70-80% chance) across much of the outer waters Sat thru Mon.

In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, seas were large and steep enough
to be at SCA levels this morning. SCA level NW winds are likely
(60-70% chance) this afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected
late tonight thru Sat morning. SCA level winds are likely (60-70%)
chance during the afternoon/eve hours Sat thru Mon.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the afternoon/eve
hours today, Sat and Sun. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox