Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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386 FXUS66 KLOX 031316 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 616 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...03/522 AM. A warming trend will establish through Wednesday due to high pressure aloft building in and weakening onshore flow. The warming trend will be most pronounced away the coast. Hot weather will develop across the interior for much of this week with temperatures much above normal for this time of year. Closer to the coast, the warming trend will be moderated due to continued night through morning low clouds and fog and moderate to strong onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...03/517 AM. Weak and dirty ridging aloft is building into the area early this morning as the area sits between an downstream upper-level trough entering the Plains States and an upstream upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. A northerly surface pressure gradient continues to tighten this morning, which has disrupted the marine layer induced stratus and brought increasing northwest to north winds to portions of the area. Stratus is well-entrenched along the Central Coast this morning, but clouds have scoured south of Point Conception, and mainly only remain across Los Angeles County. High-resolution multi-model ensemble members maintain clouds likely spreading back north through the morning hours into Ventura County and southern Santa Barbara County. An update might be needed later this morning to touch this part of the forecast up. West to northwest winds will develop across southwestern Santa Barbara County, through the Interstate 5 Corridor, and down into the western portion of the Antelope Valley through this afternoon. Then, the winds will turn more northerly and affect the southeastern portion of Santa Barbara County. Wind advisories remain in effect for southwestern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 Corridor, and the western Antelope Valley foothills for portions of today and tonight, but wind advisories were expanded into the northern Ventura County mountains for today and tonight and into the southeastern Santa Barbara County tonight. There is a moderate to high chance gusty west to northwest winds reaching advisory levels along the Central Coast and into the Santa Ynez Valley, through the backcountry portion of the Santa Barbara County mountains, and across the Antelope Valley floor west of Highway 14. Troughing to the north of the area will send quite a bit of middle and high level cloudiness over the area through Tuesday. The forecast keep a partly to mostly cloudy stance outside of the marine layer depth due to the amount of cloudiness pushing south. Adding confidence to the scenario, a look of infrared imagery indicates a decent amount of cloudiness moving south this morning across northern California. Despite a thinning marine layer depth due to the ridge and the northerly surface pressure gradient in place this morning, there is a still a threat of a drizzle. Local 3-km WRF solutions maintain a favorable flow pattern this morning and Tuesday morning with weak omega values through the mixed layer. As far as this morning, though rare, there have been times where ridging aloft will clamp down on the dense marine air mass and will squeeze out drizzle. As we move into Tuesday morning, the drizzle makes more sense conceptually as the dynamics with the trough will lift the low cloud deck and squeeze out drizzle. High pressure should start to take control of the pattern on Tuesday as the trough vacates the region and retreats south of the U.S. border off the coast of Baja California. High pressure aloft will build into the region, weakening onshore flow, and thinning the marine layer depth. The air mass will heat up outside of the depth of marine layer. A significant warming trend is forecast for the interior portions of the area between Tuesday and Wednesday, but the warming trend is more muted along the coast. Still, there is a moderate chance that low clouds and fog could get wiped out along the Central Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday as enough offshore flow could develop. South of Point Conception, confidence remains high that the marine influence will remain wedged in and keep the warming trend moderated. Low clouds and fog could continue to linger into the afternoon hours each day, keeping the beaches shrouded in cloud cover. Due to the hot weather forecast early in the month of June, the climate normals are much lower. An excessive heat watch remains in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for the interior portions of the area, such as the interior San Luis Obispo County valleys, and the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothill areas. Forecast highs are poised to be close to 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year on Wednesday. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/521 AM. A hot weather pattern will continue well away from the coast into Thursday, and possibly into Friday. The forecast ensembles are warming temperatures for Thursday and Friday. On Wednesday, NBM solutions now give a greater chance of 100 and 105 degree high temperatures for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB. There is a greater than 95 percent chance of high temperatures reaching 100 degrees out in the Antelope Valley and a greater than 75 percent chance of KPRB reaching 100 degrees on Wednesday. On Thursday, a greater than 85 percent chance exists for the Antelope Valley. With the ensembles trending warmer, the excessive heat watch on Wednesday and Wednesday evening was extended into Thursday evening. A southeast flow pattern still develops for late week and could bring an early start to the monsoon in southern California. While low confidence exists at this point, the pattern recognition could come into play for late week or even into the upcoming weekend as the trough moving to the south will lift back across the area. Southeast flow aloft will increase and could pipe subtropical moisture into the region for late week or over the weekend. Forecast ensemble members have backed off precipitation for Thursday and Friday, but it remains a non-zero chance given the pattern. There are a handful of EPS ensemble members giving precipitation for KPMD and KGXA for Friday through Sunday with NBM solutions giving a 5 percent chance of rain for Wrightwood-Big Pines on Friday and through the weekend. && .AVIATION...03/1316Z. At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 19 deg C. Another deep marine layer, but the cloud field was not as solid as it has been. However, clouds were filling in, and by sunrise, clouds should be widespread in all coastal and valley areas with the exception of the portions of southern SBA County, portions of the valleys of VTU County, and the Cuyama Valley. Clouds were also pushing into the coastal slopes. Conditions were mostly MVFR across L.A. County, (except IFR to VLIFR in the foothills), and IFR to VLIFR from Ventura County northward. Expect skies to clear by late morning in the valleys, and by early afternoon across the coastal plain. Clouds may still linger at some beaches today. Expect a shallower marine layer tonight, with clouds likely confined to coastal and lower valley areas. Conds will be IFR to LIFR, except low LIFR in coastal and some lower valley areas of L.A. and VTU Counties. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs will scatter out as early as 19Z. There is a 20% chance that cigs will not return until at least 06Z. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt from 09Z-16Z Tue. KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs will scatter out as early as 17Z. There is a 20% chance that tonight will remain clear. && .MARINE...03/415 AM. In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds are expected to increase to gales this afternoon (90% chance), then continue thru late tonight. SCA conds are expected late tonight thru Tue (90% chance). Winds are expected to drop below advisory levels in the southern zone (PZZ676) late Tue afternoon or eve, in the central zone (PZZ673) Wed, and in the northern zone (PZZ670) late Wed night. SCA level winds are not expected Thu/Fri, but there is a 50% chance of SCA level seas in northern areas Thu. In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, steep seas were near advisory levels this morning, and SCA level NW winds are expected (80%) chance this afternoon/evening. Winds are seas will likely drop below SCA levels late tonight/Tue morning, but are likely again (70% chance) Tue afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected late Tue night thru Fri. SCA level winds are likely (60-70% chance) in the western third or so of the SBA Channel this afternoon thru late tonight. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected across the inner waters S of Pt. Sal thru Fri. SE winds will develop late each night and morning thru Wed or Thu, with isolated winds around 15 knots thru passages and channels, and between islands. Steep and choppy seas will likely affect the outer waters thru at least Wed night, with choppy seas spreading into western portion of the SBA Channel and the souther inner waters at times. There is a chance of dense fog in the waters from Point Mugu northward late tonight thru Thu, mainly during the late night thru morning hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Watch now in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 344-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 350-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 377-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...DB MARINE...DB SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox