Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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864 FXUS66 KLOX 290215 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 715 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...28/705 PM. Increasing northerly flow this week is expected to cause earlier and more complete clearing of the marine layer, leading to slightly warmer temperatures and more afternoon sunshine. Breezy northerly winds will develop across southern Santa Barbara County and some interior areas each afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/201 PM. A trough passing through the Pac NW today will generate some northerly flow across the western and northern part of the area the next couple days. The main impacts from this will be some gusty winds across the outer coastal waters as well as the coastal areas from the Central Coast through southwest Santa Barbara County. Some warming is expected as well, mainly inland areas, as high pressure develops behind the trough and heights rise. Winds may approach low end advisory levels, mainly across southwest Santa Barbara County as the winds flow up an over the mountains and down through the canyons and passes along the south coast. Another tangential impact will likely be decreasing marine layer stratus along the Central Coast through Santa Barbara and a shallower and earlier clearing marine layer elsewhere. There will still be a weak eddy circulation over the southern coastal waters that will maintain a solid cloud cover but it will likely clear earlier in the day and not return until after midnight in most areas. Some warming is expected as well, however, a cool sea breeze is still expected each afternoon near the coast which will cap any warming there to just a couple degrees at most over the next few days. Most valleys should top out in the low to mid 80s .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/221 PM. Troughing will return later in the week and especially over the weekend which will increase onshore flow to the east and weaken the northerly flow over the outer waters. This will lead to a deepening and longer lasting marine layer through the weekend as well as cooling temperatures. Many ensemble solutions are indicating building high pressure early next week, but mainly north and east of southwest California. Most of the NAEFS gradients are still favoring a rather robust onshore flow pattern locally that will keep our natural air conditioning going for most areas west and south of the mountains. Could see some near 90 degrees across our warmest valley areas, but most valleys will top out in the mid 80s and coastal areas in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...29/0203Z. At 0013Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2400 feet with a temperature of 19 C. High confidence in desert TAFs, gusty winds may increase again after 08Z. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs, due to uncertainty in marine layer cloud behavior. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by up to 3 hours. There is a 10-20% chance for brief LIFR conditions at coastal sites during the early morning hours. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, due to uncertainty in timing of flight cat changes. Cigs may clear briefly between 19Z and 22Z. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 6 to 8 kt 08Z-16Z Wed. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 20% chance for brief LIFR cigs in the early morning hours. && .MARINE...28/152 PM. Moderate confidence in forecast. In the outer waters, winds and seas are at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. Winds are expected to increase to low-end gales in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) late this afternoon, and in the southern zone (PZZ676) this evening, with the strongest winds in western portions of these zones. Gales are expected to continue thru late Wed night, though they may drop below gale force at times, particularly during the morning. Overall confidence in gales is 70-80% in northern zones, and 60% in the southern zone. If wind do not reach gale force, the will be strong SCA levels thru Wed night. SCA level winds will likely continue Thu/Thu night, and while winds should drop off, seas may remain close to SCA levels Fri thru Sat. In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) this afternoon/eve, and again Wed afternoon/eve. SCA level seas are likely Wed night thu Thu night, and there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Thu afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Fri thru Sat. In the southern inner waters, SCA winds are likely (80% chc) in western portions of the SBA Channel late this afternoon thru late tonight, and again late Wed afternoon thru late Wed night. There is 20-30% chance of gales in western portions of the SBA Channel late Wed afternoon/Wed night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Phillips/Schoenfeld MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox